Intellectual Ventures (or Vultures?)

Intellectual Ventures (IV) is a venture that mostly buys up an ever-growing collection of patents. It invites others to pay a membership fee and get “membership” of this collection for a heavy one-time fee, sometimes in hundreds of millions of dollars, which gives them:

• the right to license or purchase any patent from its collection to use as defense in battles against its rivals
• the right to not have the venture use its patents against the member
• the right to get a share of membership fees paid by every future member. Thus, there is an automatic incentive to join early, as in any multi-level pyramid scheme.

Nowadays, it is observed that IV has taken to selling some patents from their huge collection. This means that if they want to start a battle, they make sure that they never fight in their own name. This fact is shrouded behind a byzantine maze of shell companies so that, invariably, the entity that fights is an unknown entity that has incidentally come to own the patents required to fight. This arrangement with the shell company is suspected to have a “back end” so that at least some of the benefits that may accrue from any battle using the patents sold by IV to the remote entity, flows back to IV.

Intellectual Ventures's modus operandi includes putting on a front where they offer the public through overawed or otherwise unskeptical press reporters, a glimpse of its huge collection of patents. They take reporters around its innovation laboratories where they spend millions to “encourage innovation”. IV keeps drilling home the message that they do not want to fight; indeed, they strive to avoid battles. They only help their membership fee paying members to use its collection of patents for offense in battles against their business rivals. Thus, this venture gives out patents on hire to its members who have insufficient or no patents in their own personal collection. They also put in a friendly word with their members' business rivals, when they think it might help, to help out their members. They do not like to talk about their members, but large corporations like Microsoft and Verizon are known to be early members of this collection. Their members also include tiny startups like Vlingo who need (and hence bought) patents from IV's collection to use to fight their business rivals. Verizon also is known to have bought some patents in its battle against TiVo.

Now there are some who have a completely different view of Intellectual Ventures. Their view can be easily be understood with a few words being replaced by words that differ slightly in meaning. They suggest the following search-and-replace commands be run on the paragraphs above:

Search for	Replace with
membership	protection
member	protectee
patent	weapon
license	borrow
defense	offense
membership fee	protection money
collection	arsenal
battles	lawsuits
fight	sue

Of course, there are still others who recommend another search-and-replace that is suggested in the title of this post. What do you think? Comments welcome.

Global Power Shift

This is just a series of observations that support my idea that we are living in what, in a few decades, will be seen as tumultous times.

Recently, there was a news item that stated that by 2020, China will become a larger economy than the US; and by 2050, India will top even China, leaving the US a distant third. This is not someone's wishful thinking, but just the magic of compounding – of economic growth, rather than of your money in a bank.

Today, we are all living at the crossroads of history. A subtle power shift, significantly visible in time frames of decades, but barely perceptible at the time frame level of a day or a week, is happening all the time. Witness the following:

• The Arab Spring happened over a period of months and still seems dramatic. I doubt if the spring has completely spent itself. It is not yet all cool in Syria and Egypt, and it may yet erupt again in some other nation(s).
• Technology laughs at national and geographic borders. Accountability and clean governance pressures were earlier driven within each nation's power centres, laterally. However, now there are vertical pressures that cross national borders earily – thanks to telecom, internet, satellite broadcasting and global moneychangers (both, traders and speculators).
• Unregulated or unpoliced space soon becomes populated with groups that thrive on chaos and absence of regulation. Witness Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, etc. to see the truth of this.
• Unregulated pockets in otherwise regulated economies also give birth to chaos. While this is not to be taken as an approval of the concept of a police state, it is sobering to hear Paddy Ashdown cite a fact that 60% of the $4M that funded the 9/11 bombings passed through the WTC itself!
• Now, the enemy is within each country. Thus, for properly defending a country, the defence ministry may need to speak to the Health ministry (to protect against pandemics); Ministry of Commerce and Industry (the hi-tech infrastructure of the country is sensitive and vulnerable to attack), Home Affairs (to track infiltrators), and Transportation (Air/ ship/ road security). Defending our borders is just not enough.
• The maximum vulnerability is at all “interconnection points” (airports, docks, bus and train terminals). So defending at such points necessarily means overlap in responsibilities and powers. Hence, working with others efficiently is a capability all need to develop.
• Defence co-operation is not enough. Nations and people living in them need to realize that war is an immensely expensive zero-sum game that can go on infintely to their collective detriment. Only then can long-festering disputes cool down sufficiently to permit normal life.
• In 1945, when WW-II ended, there were about 100 countries. Today, there are nearly 200. We are adding almost 1.5 new  countries a year on an average over the last 67 years.  At the same, time, we have witnessed European countries lowering the borders and becoming a single currency area (that initiative is arguably in the endgame stage already).
• Siberia has such inclement weather that in the Far East province of Russia (area double of India) less than 60 Lakh people live. Greater Mumbai has double that population! However, it is a source of power for Russia – most of its natural gas and oil is sourced from this vast area. Surprisingly, this is a source of power for China too! Global warming has given rise to vast wheat fields in Siberia – but there is no one in Russia to feed. Russia's population is shrinking. But we see that some 600,000 Chinese migrate to Siberia, cultivate wheat during the summer on vast leased farm tracts, and come back home every year. This wheat feeds a good proportion of the Chinese population.
• China is controlling a larger and larger part of the world – without firing a shot. They are, quite literally, either buying them up, or colonizing through sheer numbers of immigrants. They are “partnering for prosperity” with several poorer countries, notably in Africa. Thereby, it is creating a China-centric circle of influence that rivals that of the US already. China has trade relationships with Korea, Japan and other countries in the neighborhood, and lower tariffs for poorer countries. In Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia, the ethnic Chinese population is a significant, loosely united power bloc. In BRICS and in the Asian Free Trade Zone, China is assuming an increasingly dominant role. For example, on Iran, both China and Russia have vetoed UN Resolutions sponsored by the US for increased sanctions. China is still the largest customer of Iranian oil, with India being second.
• Chinese yuan is threatens to emerge as an alternative reserve currency in addition to the dollar and euro, which (when, not if, China can get away with it) will deflate the US balloon much faster than one can imagine. When that happens, the US will be awash (not overnight, but over a finite period of, say, 3 years) with inflation of  the trillion dollars of bonds that China won't need. Thus, the US seems poised to deteriorate as a global power. Inflation robs from the poor, and shifts even more economic power to the rich, so it will exacerbate social tensions in the US, as the feeling is already rife that the US bends backwards to accommodate the rich, at the cost of the poor. The recent BRICS meet discussed this concept, but shied away from pushing immediately for it. If, and when, yuan gets adopted as an alternative reserve currency, the power shift will accelerate.

I intend to develop this line of thinking further in coming days and weeks. I welcome inputs in the form of comments from anyone who has more to contribute to this line of thinking.

Dysprosium

No, it is not something bad, like dysfunctional or dyslexia. It is not a medicine either. A few of us, barring chemistry freaks, may know this from the Periodic Table of Elements, part of a group called Lanthanides. It is an element, like Iron, or Copper. Except that the world manufactures (from natural ores) only about 100 tonnes per annum of this substance. So it is rarer than gold, literally speaking. But strangely, currently worth much less than its weight in gold, at close to $2,500 per kg. Gold is many, many times costlier. So what?

China makes 99 tonnes out of that 100 tonnes. So what? China has restricted its export, along with a clutch of similar improbably named elements collectively called as rare earth metals. China has only 12 years' worth of output (estimated) left in the clay mines that are the source of the ore. Naturally, China wants to conserve its reserves for its own use, and have clamped export limits. The United States, as always, wants China to ease these export restrictions, going to the extent of filing a WTO complaint against China.

Strangely, China has 35% of world reserves but accounts for 97% of current world production of rare earth metal oxides! And guess what, USA has significant rare earth reserves (1/3^rd of China's according to the figures put out by the US Geological Survey's Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2010 ) that it is currently not exploiting at all. Indeed, the report notes that “Bastnäsite deposits in China and the United States constitute the largest percentage of the world’s rare-earth economic resources ”. Molycorp Minerals, a mining company, is even as I write this, engaged in a fight with the US Government to get one of its mines re-opened, lying closed since 2002. Australia and the CIS countries also have significant reserves that are currently almost not utilised at all. Why so? The answer may lie in the genesis of the name: Dysprosium is derived from the Greek “dysprositos” that means hard-to-get-at!

Toyota requires 100 grammes per car of this substance to make the drive motors for its hybrid car, Prius. The entire world's current output would be sufficient for only a million hybrid cars. But then, they are not the only guys vying for the substance.

It is used in almost all mobile phones, flat screen TVs and computer monitors, nuclear reactor fuel rods, magnetomechanical sensors, actuators, automotive catalytic converters, high-precision liquid fuel injectors and acoustic and ultrasonic transducers (don't worry about what some of these things are or do – suffice it to say that they generate demand for Dysprosium). Wind power generators require it, as do hard disks. High-intensity commercial lighting and lasers use an alloy including this.

Can we manufacture it synthetically? Not yet! So the world has no alternative to focus on commercializing the existing reserves, and ore-processing capacity.

What if the world runs out of Dysprosium? We can still make do, but any substitutes will most likely be heavier and more inefficient with respect to magnetic properties. So no more sleek iPhones, tablets, netbooks. Non-renewable (nuclear, wind) energy will become costlier. No Prius. Unless we learn to make it synthetically, or find much more efficient magnets not using Dysprosium. 

The Horror in Panjwai ... and the last 9 years reviewed

It all began with Bush declaring imperiously, "If you're not with us, you're with them".

And then began the sordid, shameful saga in 2003 that has yet to end. Of two more wars that should never have happened. Of a war being waged on a common noun.

It began by the US occupying high moral ground. Of 3000+ innocent victims of terror¹. But it led to documented deaths of well over 105,000+ Iraqis. Several times more people injured or violently displaced from their homes. Lancet's 2^nd peer-reviewed study of Iraqi casualties indicated 654,965 excess deaths, or 2.5% of Iraq's population. That was in 2006. In 2007, the Opinion Research Business, an independent polling agency located in London, published estimates of the total war casualties in Iraq since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 200 at over 1.2 million deaths (1,220,580). Of these, 48% died from a gunshot wound, 20% from the impact of a car bomb, 9% from aerial bombardment, 6% as a result of an accident and 6% from another blast/ordnance. As of Jan, 2008, this estimate had been revised to 1,033,000. Of course, such findings are contested – none can ever claim accuracy. But then, you get the drift. How many Afghani and Iraqi Arabs should die for each American who died in the WTC Tower crash? All this toll in a war started on the basis of what proved to be a pack of lies told to the whole world!

A country that was ruled ruthlessly for 34 years by a dictator was thrown from that frying pan into an intense fire of an internecine escalating spiral of senseless violence. The situation today is such that now many Iraqis must yearn for the days under a tyrant called Saddam.

Since 2003 when Saddam was deposed by an intense military offensive, death has mostly rained down on Iraq from the air, where no American lives can be lost. When at last the Americans sent in their ground troops, they first created a min-America within Iraq – the heavily fortified Green Zone. And then let loose their maniacs and perverts. Like Lynndie England and Charles Graner in Abu Ghraib, a prison housing 7,500 prisoners in 2004. After their unpardonable acts of perversion, they were escorted safely to the US, where Lynndie gave safe birth to a child conceived in the midst of perversion, and then spent a leisurely 3 years in a swank military prison in the balmy climate of California spread over 19,000 sq mts and meant to house only 400 female prisoners. She served in the prison kitchen as punishment, and lived in that prison for exactly 521 days till she was paroled till her 3-year sentence was over. Now she lives in West Virginia, bringing up her child. Still not repentant for the horrors she took part in. And Graner? He was sentenced to 10 years, but was released in August, 2011 after serving only 6.5 years in a new prison building in Kansas meant for 515 prisoners in a quiet area spread over 51 acres where the bright cells have doors and windows, but no bars. Both were dishonorably discharged – forget the dishonor, discharge is what they probably wanted and got, anyway.

This is what an American soldier gets for visiting unspeakable horrors on thousands of prisoners. Definitely what the US soldier who went on a rampage yesterday in the original war-on-terror theatre, Afghanistan, must have mulled as infinitely preferable to the hell-hole that Afghanistan has become.

Let us go fast forward over the other horrors – the peeing on bodies of dead Taliban fighters; the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers and several hundred civilians through unmanned drone attacks; the random killing of defenceless civilians including a Reuters cameraman in Baghdad by shooting through Apache helicopter gun-sight; the shoot-the-messenger reaction in charging Bradley Manning for leaking this evidence to WikiLeaks; the desecration and burning of copies of the Koran; and so many others – and come straight to yesterday's horror at Panjwai in rural Afghanistan. What happened? 

An American on Afghan soil walks up in the dead of night and shoots and kills 16 Afghan civilians point-blank and coolly walks away. He is arrested – not by Afghan police, but by the NATO forces! 

Now, being a US citizen, he will be tried and brought to justice. In American. In American style. In a closed military court, like England and Graner. In camera, and not in a public trial. That too, many months or years after the public has forgotten this horror. And then, the judgment of the military court will be classified, and not released. And this soldier not hanged, but sentenced to 10-15 years in a swank, comfortable prison, if he is unlucky. And given a dishonorable discharge from the Armed Forces. And paroled after a few years. So he can go back to his family. And live happily or unhappily ever after. With only his conscience to trouble him. If he has one, that is.

Obama consoles Karzai, and not the people who are bereaved so suddenly; and senselessly. Not a month ago, he ducked out of sight and refuses to apologize for the Koran burnings. Directing the NATO commander to do that instead. The same President who did not cringe from the cameras after the killing of Osama bin Laden on foreign soil, in flagrant violation of sovereignty of a nation. Is that the face of a Nobel Peace Prize winner that we see?

What about the US Government? Thanks to its formidable spin doctors and the twin forces of powers to conceal the truth and a well-oiled propaganda machine to project a lie as the truth, and of course, a credulous population, it will still manage to hold forth and pontificate against human rights abuses elsewhere in the world. Like it managed to make their shameful retreat from a war that they lost abjectly, secretly under cover of darkness, and then look like a great achievement.

Now I think I begin to understand the depth of loathing that Arabs have for Americans. Loathing not just because of their despicable acts. But in large measure due to the Americans' deep-seated hypocrisy.

------------------

1 Even this is being disputed by documentaries like Fahrenheit 911 by Michael Moore and Loose Change 9/11

India's Elections: What can Others Learn from Them?

Today, we had municipal council elections in Mumbai and Thane. I went out to the polling booth around 9 am, and was out by 9:10, after going through the process of

• identifying myself (I showed my passport, but a driving licence, election ID card, or a PAN card (income-tax identification) would have done as well; and in later elections, a vast number may vote on the strength of the Unique biometric identification system that is being rolled out on a massive scale)
• getting the blob of indelible ink on my fingers, so that I cannot vote more than once, and then
• selecting two candidates - one female and one male, for our municipal ward on an Electronic Voting Machine (EVM).

Some observations:

First, the process was super-smooth.

Second, the counting is such a smooth process that oncce the EVMs from all over the ward are assembled in one place, the counting of votes and announcing of results would take a shorter time than it took me to write this piece.

Third, there would be no arguments about the count, even if the difference was in single digits. A welcome change from the ridiculous farce that the Florida count in George W's Presidential election against Al Gore just over a decade ago, in the world's most powerful and tech-savvy democracy. One day, India's super-efficient Election Commission (EC) will probably become a profit centre - taking up outsourced election management deals.

Fourth, the EVMs are a wonder of hardiness and simplicity. Hi-tech, yet low-cost. Easy to configure, easy to understand, they have proved themselves time and again in hugely different climate zones, and have reduced the cost of election management by an order of magnitude, with lesser challenges to election results, and lesser effort and time for counting. EVMs are equipped with software that is deceptively sophisticated - for example, I have read somewhere that the EVM is configured so that at least 15 seconds need to elapse before the next vote is registered and announced by an audible long beep. This makes mass-voting by goons a time-consuming task - if the 15-second limit is breached more than twice in succession, the EVM locks itself up, and can only be unlocked by empowered EC officers.

Lots to learn from India's conduct of that great ritual of democracy, called elections, don't you think?  

Afghanistan: Strategic Options before the US

In my last blog entry, I had outlined how Russia is playing a high-stakes, long-term, strategic poker to regain its former dominance and glory. Today, I examine a few history lessons relating to war; and in the light of Russia's game, and also because of lack of a coherent long term US foreign policy, now that US involvement in Iraq and Libya has ended, I attempt to explain how America is painting itself into a strategic corner, as far as the major remaining theatre of war, Afghanistan, is concerned.

History has always shown that supply lines are at the root of war strategy. If supply lines are closed, the army that has advanced becomes isolated and vulnerable. For this same reason, access to sea ports that make possible cheap logistics via sea have always been considered strategically important. Also, physical features like lakes, seas, rivers and mountain ranges often form national borders that act as natural fortifications or buffer zones.

History is replete with instances where supply lines, ports and geographic features like narrow straits that control access, have played a big role. Control of the narrow Strait of Istanbul (aka Bosphorus Strait), connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea has been the prize at stake in more than one war (including WW-1's Battle of Gallipoli), as the Suez Canal has been in the 1960s. At Dunkirk in WW-2, breaking the isolation and seige was at the heart of the evacuation by Allied forces. Again, the German army was repulsed in Russia towards the end of WW-2 by the “scorched earth” strategy–the retreating Russians left behind nothing that the enemy could use–no buildings (burnt/ razed), no crops (burnt), and no food or water (poisoned wells). The long, thin supply line was constantly broken by Russian guerillas, and to make matters worse, the winter of '41-42 was the severest in a long time. Soldiers froze to death in their sleep; diesel froze in fuel tanks; there were severe food shortages due to the scorched earth policy. This put such a severe strain on the logistics of supporting an advancing army that the Nazis eventually capitulated.


The above references to supply lines brings us to why Russia's strategic gameplan has attained even more serious geo-political overtones: supply lines to Afghanistan, an important theatre of war, where the US and NATO forces are deeply involved, have become vulnerable. Pakistan, in anger over killing of 24 of its soldiers at an Afghan border checkpost, has closed two US supply lines to Afghanistan: via Torkham (Khyber Pass) in the north, and via Chaman in the south. These were the cheapest and easiest supply lines, though risky because of risks of ambushes to the convoys. A few years back, to reduce dependence on the route through Pakistan, the US developed the so-called Northern Distribution Network (NDN) project. It was hoped that the NDN would be less subject to armed attacks, delays, and pilferage that have hampered movement of goods along the Karachi-Peshawar route. In setting up the NDN, the US must have expended considerable diplomatic capital in nudging and getting co-operation from several CIS states involved, and above all, from Russia. An attempt to get China and India to partly fund the NDN because of potential benefits to their economies was a non-starter. This eventually allowed multiple alternative supply lines to be established, albeit a bit costlier (about 250% of the Karachi-Peshawar route), into Afghanistan from the North. Why multiple? Because the sole customer of these routes was the US/NATO, and having multiple options was thought to offer better bargaining leverge to the US. But as we will see in detail below, each NDN route is an uneasy option for the US, especially after Pakistan has shut its doors to NATO and US.

• The best route for NATO/ US forces to send supplies to Afghanistan is the route from the Arabian Sea (Karachi, Pakistan) to Afghanistan via Peshawar, Chaman and Torkham on the Af-Pak border. This is short, relatively easily motorable, and access to Pakistan via Arabian Sea is relatively easy for the US and its allies, thanks to its military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Even this route has pushed the cost of gasoline from $3 per gallon in the US to $400 per gallon delivered at the forward positions in Afghanistan. When convoys are ambushed, the costs are said to go up to $800 per gallon!
  
• The second route (called NDN North), is the next most viable route (because a large portion uses Soviet-era railway lines), starts in Riga, Latvia along the Baltic Sea, and goes through Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan before entering Afghanistan. While Latvia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan may sympathise with the US rather than with Russia, it is of no avail, because Russia can shut that route overnight. Moreover, Latvia is 100% dependent on Russia for gas; and the other two have signed long term gas exploration and supply treaties with Russia. Hence, if Russia is angered, this route will close.
  
• The third route (bypassing Russia, called NDN South) is from Poti, Georgia, along the Black Sea via Baku, Azerbaijan, crossing the Caspian Sea by ferries, to Aqtau in Kazakhstan and thereafter, through Uzbekistan, on to Afghanistan. Turkmenistan is not yet an option as its Government has not granted overland transit permission for non-lethal supplies, but only for humanitarian aid supplies headed for Afghanistan. This too is uncomfortable strategically, because Russia, if angered, can easily block access to Poti, Georgia in a war-like scenario. It can also lean on Kazakhstan and create trouble for its Government through multiple levers (not discussed here). So this route too, like the second route, is feasible only when Russia is in good humour, though it bypasses Russia entirely. It is uncomfortable logistically, because it means that consignments change over from ship to road to ferries and back to road transport. Plus, it goes through two CIS countries (Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan) where the overhang of Russian influence is still heavy. We cannot also ignore the frequent water-sharing disputes between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan resulting in Uzbek blockades of traffic into Tajikistan lasting for weeks on end, sometimes.
  

• The fourth route (called the KKT route), bypasses Georgia, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan but goes through Russia, ( :-) Russia keeps popping up like a bad coin!), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
• The final route, and the most expensive, to be utilised only if other routes are not sufficient, or in case of life and death, is by air costing approximately $7 per pound of supplies – either over Russian and multiple CIS countries' airspace from Europe over the Black Sea or through Pakistani airspace. Now, any of these countries could deny access to US supply airplanes. Cheapest would be over Pakistani airspace, but this route is currently closed. The US's air base in Manas, Kyrgyzstan is also subject to Russian influence.  

So the conclusion is that the US has very few options in Afghanistan, and a great deal of hope that Pakistan will eventually be prevailed upon to swallow their anger against the US. Just a few days after Pakistan closed US and NATO supply lines to Afghanistan, Russia also threatened to close the NDN North in partial retaliation of the US's attempts to place ballistic missiles in Poland and other countries bordering Russia. They have also threatened to place short range missiles in Kaliningrad, aimed at specific targets in Europe. This is aimed at the most vulnerable spot in the US's Afghan strategy, at the worst possible time for the US. It is thus clear that Russia is more than willing to use the NDN as a diplomatic bargaining chip. Putin has signalled this loud and clear by lowering the diplomatic temper with the US several notches by accusing them of meddling in Russia's internal politics, in the context of post-election anti-Putin protests in Russia (some papers have called this Russia's “Tahrir” moment). If the US is actually doing what Putin is alleging, they are playing dangerous, high-stakes diplomatic poker. Russia, however, knows that if Pakistan changes its mind, or if the US retreats from Afghanistan, the NDN card will no longer work.
While it is some more time before things turn dire, if Pakistan does not make a U-turn from its current diplomatic position vis-à-vis the US and NATO, the options before the US are basically two; and both are “lame-duck” options that can diminish the US standing in the world considerably:

• Eat diplomatic crow dished out by Russia to keep the most viable NDN routes open as long as they remain involved in Afghanistan; or
• Completely retreat from Afghanistan well before the US Presidential election in Dec, 2012, like they have done recently in Iraq under cover of darkness and surprise. This is the most likely scenario. While the Obama administration spin doctors may project it politically as a decision to withdraw voluntarily (like they are projecting the Iraqi withdrawal), this will actually be projected by Pakistan and the Taliban, and seen and believed by much of the Arab/ Muslim world as a humiliating forced retreat arising out of defeat.

Currently no one in the US administration is talking about what happens if Pakistan sticks to its guns long enough. Everyone is cynical enough to believe that Pakistan will change its tune. But to understand the probability of this happening, note that for the first time, in Pakistan, the fundamentalists, the army and the politicians (even the opposition) are on one side. It will take great courage for any of these groupings to change their tune vis-a-vis the US radically. Expecting this to happen in some time is the equivalent of running a war and putting the lives of 140,000 armed forces personnel plus those of countless contract employees working in Afghanistan, to support the US and NATO fight against the Taliban, at stake on the basis of blind hope and faith, not hard-headed strategy and tactics. Putin's recent uncharacteristically belligerent diatribe against Hillary Clinton, John McCain and the US's meddling in internal politics of Russia (meaning the protests about the recent elections being unfair etc.) is as clear an indication as any that Russia is gearing up to extract a heavy diplomatic and political price from the US for keeping the NDN open. Come winter, and Russia dons its hardest negotiating hat in Ukraine; now they will do it with the US too. 

(Maps are from Google Earth (TM))

Russia's Strategic Geo-Political Game

Russia, after the break-up of USSR into 15 CIS countries, has been reduced to a country with long, flat borders that are difficult to patrol and defend, with most of its neighbouring CIS countries, and precious little access to the sea except to the icy Barents and Kara Seas.; and through Kaliningrad, an outpost cut off from the contiguous land mass of the rest of Russia, to the Baltic Sea. Russia also has a narrow window to the Black Sea southwest of Volgograd.

Commercially, it has much of Europe by the short hairs, because of its stranglehold over supply of natural gas. At least 18 CIS and European countries are between 25% and 100% dependent on Russian natural gas, and have almost fully converted to gas for internal heating. So, every winter since 2005, when large parts of Europe are difficult to live in without gas heating, Russia turns on the diplomatic pressure using Ukraine (through which its gas pipeline passes) as the whipping boy. Over the last 6 years, Russia has played hardball and negotiated hard with Ukraine. This year's negotiations may begin any time now. 

Russia under Vladimir Putin (and now Medvedev with Putin breathing down his neck) has been playing a very smart and patient strategic game for the last over 15 years, where it uses all its strategic advantages to gain and extend its power and influence. In particular, it is keen on expanding till it gets access to a natural bulwark against invasion, in the form of sea, river, lake or mountain range; and rebuild Russia to its former glory. This intent is borne out by Putin's recent regret that leaders of the erstwhile USSR did not fight to prevent its collapse. In 2005, he had described the described the demise of the USSR as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20^th century. For example,

CIS Countries Map taken from Google Maps.

• Russian troops have recently (in April, 2010), ostensibly at the invitation of the Kyrgyzstan Government, bivouacked in Kyrghyzstan, thus making Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the three CIS countries bordering that tiny, poor country, very uncomfortable. Kyrgyzstan is mostly mountains and highlands, giving this country strategic vantage points to peer into their neighbours' backyards.
  • At the south-east, Russian troops can look down from the Tien Shan mountains almost into Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan.
  • At the north, from Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, if you shout, you can be heard in Kazakhstan. Indeed, Almaty, the largest town in, and the former capital of, Kazakhstan, with 9% of this thinly populated country's population, is less than 250 kms away. I had predicted in this blog in April, 2010, that there will be trouble in Kazakhstan in the next 2-3 years, covertly fomented by Russia. This seems to have begun, if this report is to be believed. A state of emergency is currently in force, and curfew imposed, in an oil-producing town. Kazakhstan is an important exporter of crude, and interruption of supplies are a possibility, leading to upward pressure on global oil prices.
  • The third country, Tajikistan, large parts of which are mountainous and inhospitable, borders Afghanistan, a geo-politically important state. Besides, Tajikistan is currently locked in a dispute with Uzbekistan about sharing of waters of a river which is being dammed in Tajikistan.
  • Kyrgyzstan also has a long border on the east with China, and from the mountains there, you can peer into China's Uighur (muslim) province, which Al Qaeda cells have reportedly infiltrated. Further, the US has an air base called Manas in Kyrgyzstan which is a supply line to Afghanistan. Since the new Kyrgyzstan Government owes its existence and continuance in power to Russia. This air supply base for US operations in Afghanistan is in danger, if Russia is angered by US foreign policy.
• Kaliningrad gives Russia a shared border with Lithuania and Poland, and easy access to North Europe. As Lithuania is 100% dependent on Russia for its natural gas, like Latvia and Estonia, Lithuania has not much choice but to allow Russia land and airspace access to Kaliningrad, which is at the forefront of Russia's objection to US missile bases in CIS countries or other East European economies: Russia threatens retaliatory placement of nuclear warheads and missiles in Kaliningrad, virtually on the doorsteps of several Europe-facing CIS countries and all major EU countries. Thus, being NATO member-countries is a cold relief for Lativa, Lithuania and Estonia.
• Russia's friendship with Venezuela and Bolivia through Chavez and Pablo Morales respectively raises the spectre of a “gas-OPEC” which can control gas pricing and distribution throughout the world. Even Iran and Kazakhstan have explicitly supported such an idea. Simultaneously, by offering sweeteners to Iran to lay a new pipeline for gas to Europe through its territories, it is moving forward to make Europe even more dependent on Russia for gas, far into the future. Note that Bolivia, Venezuela, Iran and Russia together account for 45% of proven gas reserves in the world. Add Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with whom Russia has signed long term exploration and supply agreements for gas (read: buys all its present and future gas output), and this figure crosses 50%. Throw in Equatorial Guinea, Trinidad and Tobago, Algeria, Argentina, Brunei, Nigeria, Oman and Qatar, all of whom are members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) of which a Russian is the Secretary General, and this formidable multilateral group controls more of the gas production and reserves of the world than OPEC did for oil. Besides, international companies have by now been pushed out of Russia, more or less, and Russian oil and gas is now consolidated in, and controlled by state-owned entities.
• Russia, along with 5 or 6 other UN member countries, notably including Venezuela, headed by Hugo Chavez, a known US-baiter, has recognized two breakaway provinces of Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) as separate countries in 2008. Russia has set up military presence in both these provinces, cocking a snook at the US and Europe, by drawing parallels to what they did by recognizing Kosovo earlier the same year over the objections of Russia. Thus, it breathes down the neck of the Georgian leadership, with South Ossetia being within shouting distance of Tbilisi, the capital. Abkhazia gives Russia much broader Black Sea coastline access, and cuts Georgia's access to it by half. When Georgia appealed for help, Europe did not budge because of its fear of angering Russia that supplies so much of Europe's natural gas. The US could not even think of coming to Georgia's rescue in these two theatres – because Russia patrolled access to Georgia via the Black Sea, and absent reliable supply lines, other than diplomatic support, it could do little else.
• Russia is so huge that it is easy to forget that in the south-east, Vladivostok, the last stop on the Great Trans-Siberian Railway at Russia's south-east tip, is very near the northern tip of North Korea, US's great bugbear. With the death of Kim-Jong Il, this geographic proximity has potential to invite international interest. I won't be surprised that with a young, untested leader in the saddle in N Korea holding a nuclear button, Russia and China attempt get friendly with N Korea. Revival of old proposals like a train from Russia through N Korea and onwards to S Korea; an oil pipeline through a similar route; and so on can be expected. In the north, the eastern-most point of Asia, that is almost permanently ice-bound, the Bering Strait separates US territory (Diomedes Islands, Alaska) from Russian by less than 50 kms, though a day apart on the calendar. (You may be able to spot Sarah Palin's kitchen from this part of Russia!) It is possible to ski across a frozen Bering Strait from Russia to the US (or vice versa) at this point (skiing to yesterday or tomorrow!). A time will soon come when Russia will begin to leverage these geographical quirks too. 

Has the US financial system thrown all caution to the winds?

I occasionally look at the US Debt Clock, and record my impressions on this blog. The biggest figure by far on this page, full of mind-bogglingly high figures, is the figure of currency and credit derivatives to which the US economy is exposed. The US financial system is becoming bolder – in the last 6 months, it seems that they have completely thrown caution to the winds, knowing that the rest of the developed world have little choice but to sink or swim with them.

Currency & Credit Derivatives Exposure of the US economy:

8 April, 2010	$648.975 Trillion	See this
26 Jul, 2011	$611.499 Trillion	See this
19 Dec, 2011	$766.628 Trillion	See this

From April to July, 2011, there seemed to be a 5% winding down (see this). However, since then, the exposure has shot up in the last 5 months to an unprecedented level. To put the current figure in context, currency and credit derivatives exposures have risen by $155 Trillion in 5 months – whereas the US GDP is $15 Trillion. The rise in this figure in only 5 months is 10 times the current GDP of the US economy; and 2-½ times the world GDP of $63.04 Trillion (World Bank figures, quoted on Wikipedia. See this).

Keep in mind that a large part of such exposures represent postponement of recognition of losses. This shows that the US economy continues to think that the rest of the world is a limitless risk sink; many ecnomists thought that the world had been cured of this naive belief. Stupidity is alive and kicking in the financial system!

The Passing of a Generation

My grand-uncle (paternal grandfather's brother) passed away at 2:10 am today morning. Since I am myself almost 50, this isn't at all surprising. Yet, it is a passing away to grieve about. He has been the pater familias for longer than I have lived. As the 9^th of 10 children (7 brothers and 3 sisters), he was the last torch-bearer of his generation. His passing marks a passing of baton acrosss generations in the family. All his siblings have lived up to ripe ages, 65 upwards. Even in this family, this grand-uncle was unusually long-lived – he was 101 years, 5 months and 19 days when he passed away. The only one in his family to come anywhere close was his mother, my great-grandmother, who passed away at 99.

Longevity, continued good health and sharp mental acuity even at age 101 were remarkable aspects of his life; but more remarkable was the fact that he lived life in exemplary fashion. He was well-off by the standards of his time; but never really rich, but yet, he commanded a “following” among his friends and family that could not be explained fully. His house has been an open house for the extended family for well over 5 decades. I have always felt closer to him than any of my other grand-uncles, because I lost my grandfather when I was 6 years old; I remember seeing him only about twice or thrice.

I remember hazily his recounting of his experience in the 1944 Mumbai docks blast, where a ship berthed in Bombay (as it was then known) Harbour blew up – I recall his telling me (along with a few of my wide-eyed cousins) that one of his office colleagues had a huge bar of pure gold land with an almighty thud in his living room balcony, a few kilometres away from the docks. That story was quite riveting – almost like an eye-witness account. I must have been, perhaps, 5 or 6 years old at the time. I later read a story in an old Readers' Digest magazine issue about that incident that lent great credence to that story. On second thoughts, I can say that RD became more credible in my mind because of this article, rather than the other way around. So strong was his influence on my mind. A few years later, RD thereafter really shaped my eclectic reading interests – I became addicted to reading and would read no less than 15-20 issues of the magazine every three months (by picking up old copies from raddiwalas) for several years. The only other relative who shaped my reading habits was my late uncle, Chaitanya D Haldipur.

Among my earliest memories were attending my grand-uncle's 60^th birthday celebrations, in 1970. We went by BEST Bus No.85 from Shivaji Park (a 12-15 minute walk from our home, then) to Tardeo, where it stopped just by the gate of the building where he stayed. There were so many people that I was a happily anonymous 8-year old having the run of their vast (so it seemed to my eyes then) apartment that day. I had a close look at a bouquet of 60 red roses sent by his office colleagues (he must have retired from service that day (I now guess) in a wicker basket, covered with crinkling cellophane – probably the first time I had seen a bouquet.

For a few decades, he did a great deal of social work in our community, and I gathered that he was as liked as he was disliked, for his forthright views and actions, though I was never very aware of what he did. All I know is that for a few years, he was the full-time Manager of our community's Math at Shirali in Karnataka State, where he was credited with quite a lot of reforms, that resulted in the Math becoming financially self-sustained and less dependent on donations from the community. After that, I gathered that he was one of the founder-trustees of the Shree Trust, which set up a Math in Karla, between Mumbai and Pune.

My grand-uncle was headstrong, but managed a remarkable partnership of marriage that lasted exactly 75 years, with my my grand-aunt, who passed away just 6 months ago. As long as she was alive, he complained and chafed because his immediate family would not allow him to go out of the home by himself. Read this in the context of the fact that he had won a WIAA safe driving award many decades ago, and till he was past 92, he drove himself around in the Mumbai traffic. For this, he became some kind of a hero in the eyes of the extended family and his friends and well-wishers, but his immediate family would be on tenterhooks whenever he made off with the car riding over every objection raised by them. The family eventually decided to end these “escapades” by selling off the car. All this time, he looked perhaps 20 years younger than he actually was!

Indeed, an anecdote is shared by many in our family circles about one of his visits to Shirali, when he was around 85. He travelled alone by bus to Bhatkal (the nearest town where the bus stopped), where a car was to pick him up. The car driver was told to look out for an 85-year-old man travelling alone, and instructed to take special care of him. AtmaBappa got down from the bus, not looking much over 60 at that time. He could not see any car or placard-waving driver waiting for him, so after waiting a few minutes, he took a taxi and went to Shirali on his own, while the driver waited in vain, looking out for a frail-looking 85-year-old !

When he was 100, when I once visited him, he was spiritedly holding forth when suddenly, in the middle of a sentence, he asked me, “Where is Revati?” Only when I assured him that she was in the bedroom, talking to my wife, did he continue. It was a remarkable bond. He was physically fitter than she was, throughout their life together. Revatipachhi, as I called her (meaning Aunt Revati in Konkani, my mother-tongue) was the complete opposite – she was cool and frail; AtmaBappa (Uncle Atma) was mercurial, oozing health and energy. She was about 5 ft tall; he was almost 6 ft tall. She could barely be heard; his resonant baritone voice boomed across three thick walls of his home for over 50 years. They became the longest living couple in India as reckoned by sum total of their ages (using dates of birth as recorded in their passports). I like to think that they both lived so long because they both did not want to be the first among them to die, leaving the other alone.

While he stayed independent till the very end, he appreciated the lifetime of dedication of his daughter-in-law, Rekha, to her family. Rekha has been the one strong, steady feature in their domesitc life. At one time, there were four residents in that home, and three of them were unable to walk without support. Rekha took care of their every need selflessly. On his 99^th Birthday, he announced to me in Rekha's presence that from now on, Rekha is the Boss of the House. He then told me sotto voce, that he was only saying it now, but that has been the case for quite a few years already!

When Revatipachhi passed away 6 months ago, something was snuffed out of AtmaBappa's life. While earlier, he was impatient with everyone because they restricted him and did not allow him to go around without a walker (which he was forced to use after a hip bone fracture when he was 99), now he had fallen silent. The last time I met him while he was up and about, which was probably a month ago, for the first time in my memory, he almost looked his age. He seemed lost, as if in some distant thoughts. It now took him 12-15 minutes to walk in tiny steps using a walker, from the living room divan to the dining table. But yet, he refused to be touched or assisted by anyone. He insisted on walking on his own, his streak of independence undulled by the ravages of Time.

His 101^st birthday (just a month after his wife passed away) was a quiet, normal day, in June this year. I went to greet him. I touched his feet, and no sooner had I said, Many Happy Returns, he said in his usual stentorian tone, “No! Don't say Returns! I don't want to see another Birthday!”. I returned home with a slight feeling of despondency. At 99, he refused to undergo cataract surgery in one eye, saying,”What do I need better eyesight for? What will I see?” That seemed like his usual pragmatic self. But this was different – I had seen a person waiting to die.

The end came, for all practical purposes, about 2 weeks ago, when he got up to walk when nobody was around him, for a few seconds, and fell to the ground, with his head hitting the ground hard. The resultant blood clot and brain swelling pushed him into a coma, from which he never really came out. Doctors were amazed to see that his vital parameters were all perfect till the very end. They actually expected him to emerge from his comatose state soon. But that was not to be. After 2 weeks in the hospital, they brought him home. His wife had insisted that she not be admitted to a hospital, because she wanted to die at home. He probably wanted the same – because, within 24 hours of his returning home, he breathed his last.

Atmaram Ganpatrao Haldipur, RIP.

India is not the only country with problems!

I recently visited two countries in Europe - United Kingdom and Switzerland. While in Switzerland, we did all the touristy things, but in the UK, we were guests - our hosts were delightful company throughout, with very well brought-up and articulate children, with sharp minds of their own. 
My host, Sanjay and I took a brief day trip to Brighton. He informed me that Brighton was the gay capital of the UK, so just the two of us walking down the main street of this town would not raise any eyebrows, "even if we held hands", he added, tongue firmly in cheek! 
We saw some "homeless" persons - who were dressed in jeans, shirts and a cap, fairly well dressed, I thought, by Indian standards, but were kneeling on the pavement and begging for alms. What surprised me was that they were selling a magazine that is supposedly brought out by the homeless in Brighton and nearby areas, in which the advertisements and cover price go to fund some of the homeless. Sanjay told me that the homeless are not necessarily the dregs of society - indeed, he pointed out that in his office, there was one employee who was officially "homeless" - after a messy divorce, he had to leave the marital home, and he defaulted on credit card debt because of the alimony burden. It seems that homeless is a misnomer - they are entitled to, and get dormitory-style accommodation (in some cases, heated!). 
In a country that counts itself as one of the richest, this was a glimpse of what they called poverty. Definitely, this was relative poverty, and not the grinding, Rs.32 per day consumption level kind of poverty we encounter in India. While there, I read in the newspapers how many people entitled under the UK laws to accommodation based on their family size would be registered for these benefits in  the UK as well as in some other rich socialist country like Norway. They enjoy homes in both countries; and either use one as their vacation home, or surreptitiously rent out the house to other immigrants who have difficulty proving that their stay in the UK was legitimate. Many such persons are employed in so-called  "Indian" restaurants, which are actually Bangladeshi or Pakistani owned and operated.  This is corruption India-style; the equivalent of our CGS quarters that are supposedly allotted to Central Government employees at various levels. Many of them have their own homes, and prefer to "rent out" or illegally sublet the premises allocated to them, enjoying income that escapes the tax net altogether.
I now understood that the UK had its share of problems. And these problems were being exacerbated by many of the home mortgages that had slowly slid "underwater" in recent years. I was so surprised at evidence of homelessness in such a cold country that I did not capture it on camera.  
Then, in Switzerland, everything was almost picture-postcard-perfect. So beautiful, in fact, that we tired of clicking photographs of the landscapes everywhere.
Except for the fact that the Swiss haven't been able to rein in their rebellious graffitti artists who spray-painted and defaced public property almost everywhere. 
In a few places, we found that the authorities had spray-painted in white over this graffitti, but it still left the wall looking shabby.

I thought to myself, at least Switzerland seems to be wealthy enough to have homes for all their people. Then, I was proved wrong. I came across a "homeless body", or a "hobo" as they are often derogatorily referred to. Except that this guy looked like he must have starred in a Wild West movie. He carried his luggage around everywhere, and sat (and probably also slept) on bus terminal benches when he tired of walking around.  
This photograph was taken in a town called Bulle, in a bus terminal when we were returning from Nestle's Cailler chocolate factory in Broc.  
As I returned to India, I thought of when our country will reach a level where poverty and disrespect for public property is reduced to a level that one has to take photographs to record evidence that it exists. I knew it would be decades before it happened, but I am hopeful of good things happening. 

• I am proud of the fact that we Indians have come to accept the reliability of Electronic Voting Machines, something that even the US and the UK have yet to adopt. 
• I have especially great confidence in the UID initiative being led by Nandan Nilekani - it will become the largest biometric identification database in the world very soon, if it hasn't already become. 
• India's banking industry is the strongest in the world today, and I can withdraw money from my account free of charge from any ATM or branch of any bank - something that even the developed world cannot boast of. 
• Some time back, I had blogged on the wonderful experience I had in replacing my lost passport. I am sure this is an experience that thousands like me have had.  
• Besides, the reduction in corruption that may result from a strong Jan Lokpal bill and an increasing pride that Indians will have in their country, that will lead them to eventually banish the scourge of absolute poverty. 
• This very pride will also ensure that public property is well maintained. Have you noticed that the speakers and LCD televisions in Mumbai's new local trains have survived for well over a year without being stolen or damaged? 

We are learning, I dare hope, to preserve public property. India is on the move, not-withstanding the troubles that seem to be filling the papers nowadays. 

Hit by Randomness

Being very logical and conservative, I believed completely in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's idea that events with very high impact but very, very low probability occur far more often than one thinks probable. 


The accuracy of this belief came home to me yesterday evening quite forcefully. For a few days, the normally diligent maid who comes in to clean my office did not turn up. Phone calls to her mobile number remained unanswered. A slight concern remained at the back of my mind, but I did nothing about it. This maid, who has been with me two years would even phone in to say she'd be late.  I ascribed it to the fact that she leads a very challenging and exhausting life, and may be unwell. She lives in rental accommodation with her mother and her son, who is doing very well in school (as a single mother, she is justifiably proud of that). She is still fighting in Court for maintenance against her husband who has abandoned them both. She works in a few places doing cleaning work from around 6:30 am, and then works in a company in Crawford Market till 8:30 pm and returns home close to 10 pm. 


Then, yesterday I heard from her brother, who lives nearby but separately. She had met with a freak accident that has changed her life completely. An act of random irresponsibility leading to a devastating black swan impact on this hard-working lady. Hit by randomness, as Taleb would put it. Bad luck, as most Indians would. Either way, it is entirely senseless and inexplicable. 


It will be some time before she can pick up the threads of her life. Her brother's intention was to ask if I would be good enough to wait for her to get well enough and come back to her job. I assured him that I would wait. She has taken a rain check on my offer for financial help. Need to go and meet her - will do that tomorrow.  

Is the West afraid of democracy?

In recent times, governments in both, the US and Europe have shown that this could indeed be true!

We now look at a few examples in recent years, of the West running scared of true democracy.

• Hamas was democratically elected as the governing party in a free and fair election which the US itself had approved of holding. Since that victory, neither Israel nor the US have recognized the Hamas government as a legitimately elected government in Gaza and the West Bank. All its talk of exporting democracy to justify ousting despots has been shown to be hollow and self-serving.
• The US also took an inordinately long time before ditching its long-time ally Hosni Mubarak, and throwing their lot with a spontaneous non-violent democratic uprising in Egypt.
• The current move to scuttle Palestine's application to be recognized as a country and admitted to full membership of the UN via a US veto in the Security Council is another example of the US running scared of democracy in action. The vote in UNESCO, where the US has no veto, shows what would happen if true democracy were allowed to prevail. 107 countries voted for admitting Palestine as a member of UNESCO while 14 countries (basically the US, Israel and like-minded countries) voted against.
• Poland, Czechoslovakia, among several countries, wanted a referendum (the most democratic method, where every citizen can participate in the decision) to decide on the Lisbon Treaty (proposing constitutional change in the EU). However, they were all prevailed upon to not hold the referendum; instead, elected representatives alone ratified it.
• Ireland, however, held a referendum and the proposal to join the EU was defeated. A year later, another referendum was forced to be held in Ireland on the same question when enough votes swung in favour of the Lisbon Treaty. That decision was hailed as a resounding endorsement of the Lisbon Treaty. This is a new kind of democracy where you repeatedly ask the same question, till you get the answer you want.
• The most recent case is when the Greek PM, George Papandreou proposed that the rescue package cobbled together by Germany and a few other EU countries be voted on by the people of Greece (referendum). It had the effect of a hungry cat among a flock of alarmed pigeons. Why should the prospects of a Greek referendum trouble the richer countries?
• Because Greece as a country is any way in a soup, whether they agree to the rescue package, or don't. It is has a choice of entering 8-ft deep water, or 25-ft deep water. The real rescue package is not for Greece, but for the banks in the developed countries that are holding Greek government bonds that have fallen steeply in value. For them, it s the difference between accessing EU's rescue funds to rescue them from the fallout of poor investment decisions and not getting that access, and bearing the entire loss themselves. With the backdrop of Occupy Wall Street campaign, and the widespread anger against bankers, a referendum would almost certainly return a resounding “NO” to the EU package.
• So it is not a surprise that Papandreou was prevailed upon to abandon his idea of a referendum. It continues the long saga of the democracies fearing democracy.

Mother Teresa of Somalia

Picture this: Somalia: the longest-running failed state, a country at war with itself for over a decade. Now picture this: Dr Hawa Abdi, a lady, a gynecologist, imbued with a spirit of service that has made her daughters into converts to her cause. She and her two daughters now run what has grown from a single room to a 400-bed hospital. These bed are always full, but in the hospital campus stay 90,000 displaced people who also need medical help or a shelter from the violence and madness outside the camp. Her hospital has become one of Somalia's largest relief camps.

In May, 2010, she was abducted and held at gunpoint for being a woman and running the camp, but the womenfolk in the camp nearly 75,000 are women or children) – through sheer numbers, and aided by a flood of approbation from the world over, they forced Dr Abdi's release. Dr Abdi, however, was made of sterner stuff – she insisted that the leader of those who abducted her apologise in writing for her abduction and vandalisation of the hospital.

Currently, Somalians are reeling under a famine, and all she can provide is drinking water, and a rent-free place to stay. While the majority of those in the camp are women and children, men are allowed to stay with two conditions (the first applies to all in the camp):

• those staying in the camp do not talk about family or clan (the reason why Somalia is so deeply divided), and
• they do not beat their wives. Any wife-beater is locked up in an empty storeroom.

Just 5 doctors (including Dr Abdi and her two daughters) and 16 nurses at the camp conduct 20 surgeries every day and treat 300-400 patients every single day, seven days a week; AND manage the camp. Truly deserving candidate for the Nobel Prize. Hope that she is nominated soon – the prize money will help her foundation and Somalia greatly.