tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-359049902024-03-14T12:13:17.909+05:30Rajesh Haldipur's Web LogThings that I find interesting!Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.comBlogger147125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-82828671092349454472023-02-10T15:28:00.001+05:302023-04-18T17:17:58.946+05:30Fat VAT and other Moans and Groans (For Gentlemen Only)<h3 style="text-align: left;"> <i style="text-align: center;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">This piece was written in
the weeks following De-monetisation, and has since been updated slightly.</span></i></h3><p style="background: white; margin-bottom: 10.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">My wife was unexpectedly looking very happy when I reached home
last evening, with an expression much like that of a cat that has just licked
off the last remains of the cream from its moustache. (I hasten to clarify here out of abundant caution, my wife most certainly DOES NOT POSSESS a moustache).</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">After 30 years of enforced domesticity (some of my long-time friends’ wives would say servitude), I had learnt the folly of asking her directly the reason for her happiness. Even when, and especially because, she looked demure, lowering her gaze as I approached. Even so, I knew that such a question would have an answer that would, in some new way, show me up as severely wanting. So usually, I would be the more accurate candidate for feline analogies – seeing that when at home, I </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">miaow</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">ed occasionally, soundlessly padded about the home messing up things, and sidled up next to her with arched back, looking for a stroke or two of appreciation. (I would have purred with anticipated satisfaction if I could, but unfortunately, the only purr I am capable of is abominably abdominal, that too sometimes involuntarily audible and, if spelt with a few more r’s at the end, onomatopoeically accurate). </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">For the last few weeks now, I have seen her privately smiling when she sees the news on TV. De-monetisation, my wife thinks, is a capital idea, IN CAPITAL LETTERS. Nowadays, our PM, I realise with a slight sinking feeling, is becoming more and more capable of making my wife smile than I seem to be. Whenever I spy her smiling, I inwardly console myself with one known fact, viz., that our PM leads the life of a confirmed bachelor; and another fact (known to her and me) that I am only single-digit-inches shy of his (known to all) chest dimensions, with a similar count and colour of hair, whether facial or on the head. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Why does she love de-monetisation so much? Many reasons, but the main ones as I have gathered, from hearing, observing and guessing, are: </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p role="presentation" style="margin-bottom: 10.0pt; margin-left: 47.25pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 47.25pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18pt; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">We have been paying horrendous percentages of our income as taxes, for decades now, so that we can sleep well. At last, she hopes that it will not only tax the pockets of those who have got away with generating ‘black money’, but also convert them into insomniacs who will be jealous of our ability to sleep like babies. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p role="presentation" style="margin-bottom: 10.0pt; margin-left: 47.25pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 47.25pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-indent: -18pt; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">My wife has an inbuilt, unceasing, self-refreshing To-Do list in her head. It includes at least a dozen items that appear at the top of the list every month: the tasks of making fund transfers for compensating all kinds of service providers. The To-Do alarms are apparently so loud in her head, that they regularly keep popping up as overdue tasks minutes after the date changes, forcing her awake, until they are paid. If the alarms were any louder, they would have disturbed my
sleep too. But that is not necessary – </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">she</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"> disturbs my sleep - I don’t need the alarms. To ensure her (and my) peaceful sleep from the night of <a>Nov 30</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_1" id="_anchor_1" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_1">[RH1]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> she swung into action very quickly by Nov 10 (not to dispose of 500- and 1000-rupee notes stashed away secretly, as you might infer but for this clarification). All our service providers were told individually that if they did not give us
their bank account details, they would not get any further salaries – whether with new notes or old. The only way we will pay them, we told them, is cashlessly. Today’s </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">mantra</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"> is Less Cash. And woe betide anyone who objects to what our universally loved PM’s </span><a><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Mann ki Baat</span></i></a></span><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_2" id="_anchor_2" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_2">[RH2]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">. On the morning of Nov 30, when I was in office, I got a dozen loud SMS notifications in 20 minutes, each notifying me that a payment had been made to our “Iron Man”, Car Washer, Milkman, morning cook, evening cook, driver, etc. etc. (and even to the home-visit beautician!). </span></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="text-indent: -24px;">Even our PM’s stone-hard </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="text-indent: -24px;">visage would crinkle into a smile if he knew that we are now the most digitally </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="text-indent: -24px;">banked household in the whole of India (I am sure even Nandan Nilekani’s </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="text-indent: -24px;">household must be spending more in cash as a percentage of expenses every </span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="text-indent: -24px;">month, than we do).</span></span></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">But then we have digressed. I began telling you about her suppressed smile this morning. </span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Today, she was not watching the news on TV. She was (I know because stole a glance at </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">her</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"> iPad over her shoulder) reading something on <a>Google Play Newsstand</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_3" id="_anchor_3" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_3">[RH3]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> News. And she was, I saw with a shudder, smiling while reading a story that spoke of the <a>Kerala</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_4" id="_anchor_4" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_4">[RH4]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Government’s unique (in India) action of passing </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/in-a-first-kerala-imposes-14-5-fat-tax-on-junk-food/articleshow/53113799.cms&source=gmail&ust=1681452922841000&usg=AOvVaw3NwpunsdNL-0ZozkM1CZpD" href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/in-a-first-kerala-imposes-14-5-fat-tax-on-junk-food/articleshow/53113799.cms" style="text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; white-space: pre-wrap;">a law that is being billed by the media as the </span><b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fat Tax</span></b></span></a></span><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">. Pizzas, Burgers, Doughnuts, Tacos and other junk food served in
branded restaurants will henceforth attract a 14.5% Fat VAT in the State. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Some persons quoted in the media have said that the tax would not change consumption patterns, but only
yield more tax revenues, but it is undeniable that the higher taxes levied for decades on ‘sin’ products like tobacco products and alcohol have reduced the percentage of people smoking. Earlier, we had sections in restaurants for non-smokers. Now we have separate enclosures for smokers and bans on smoking almost anywhere else. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Now, let’s re-focus on the home front. I suddenly understood why she was smiling and looking at my midriff. She wasn’t demurely gazing downward! She was smiling in anticipation of an unexpected ally (Pinarayi Vijayan, the Kerala Chief Minister) she had got in implementing her next challenge – viz., ensuring that my midriff growth graph made a U-turn and receded faster than my hairline has been wont to.</span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">For the last 10 days, she has been reminding me at least twice every day that she is recording the number of days I actually get out of the home and walk at least 2 miles. This was to hold me to account for my promise (made in a weaker moment) that I would do this regularly at least 5 times every week. My problem, I like to believe, is not uncommon. I love </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">having exercised</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">, though I hate </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">to exercise</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">. I have begun to resign myself to the realization that this exercise regime will become more inflexible as the weeks and months tick by. I now fear that she will not stop at reminding me twice daily. She must have learnt this trick too, from our PM. For weeks he kept telling people to come clean in the Income Declaration Scheme. And then, he stopped telling them. He acted – in one fell stroke, he de-monetised 86% by value of cash circulating in the country. Like our PM has been justifying the pain brought on by de-monetisation, she will now tell me that there is no gain without pain. I will say plaintively that nobody will even notice my weight loss, so why should I go through this pain? After all, who can sense any difference in the weight of a mountain if a rock rolls off it? But she knows that eventually, I will come round. And go round and round the nearby tank-that-masquerades-as-a-<wbr></wbr>lake. In the hope that my shape <a>becomes less round</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_5" id="_anchor_5" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_5">[RH5]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Being a Chartered Accountant for much of my life, I cannot resist ending with some precedents and results of my ‘sin tax research’. My better half and the Kerala CM both have precedents on their side, it seems. In 2008, Japan passed a “<i>metabo</i>” law (Google the term if you don’t believe me) that mandated an annual waist measurement check of people aged between 40 and 75. </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">(Human Resource Managers, take note! Go beyond Bone Density camps! Make <a><b>PwC</b></a></span></i></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_6" id="_anchor_6" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_6">[RH6]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> stand
for </span><b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;">P</span></b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;">eople </span><b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;">w</span></b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;">ithout </span><b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;">C</span></b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;">holesterol)</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">. Employers and the local government had to ensure participation. If they failed, it was NOT fine. The “<i>metabo</i>” law levied a fine! </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">Denmark levied a FAT TAX on butter, milk, cheese, pizza, meat, oil and processed foods loaded with saturated fat in 2011. However, in 2012, it was abolished, because it failed to change peoples’ eating habits, and retailers complained that their customers were taking their business to nearby countries. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">This ‘prohibitory arbitrage’ has been seen in some Indian states as well, with other ‘sin control’ measures like prohibition in place. <a>Gujaratis</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_7" id="_anchor_7" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_7">[RH7]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">, young and old, predominantly male, are known to drive across the border to enjoy a tipple at bars that have mushroomed in ‘border towns’ like SIlvassa. Now, Keralites, young and old (and not just male) will begin driving into Tamil Nadu or Karnataka to gorge on branded burgers and tacos. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">There are many more precedents for a </span><a><b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">soda</span></b></a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_8" id="_anchor_8" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_8">[RH8]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><b><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> tax</span></b><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> - more than 15 countries either currently levy, or have in the past tried to levy, a soda tax. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">In India, lobbying is frowned upon, but </span><a><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">bandhs</span></i></a></span><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_9" id="_anchor_9" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_9">[RH9]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> are acceptable. In most homes, in our current PM-</span><a><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">raj</span></i></a></span><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_10" id="_anchor_10" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_10">[RH10]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif">, don’t be surprised to find ardent supporters popping up, among the fairer sex especially, for soda </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">bandh</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">, fat </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">bandh</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">, and/or tobacco </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">bandh</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">. They will impose it on family members (especially males). Our PM is fresh from successfully mobilising the fairer sex in a pan-India project of toilet-training men by the millions in villages and urban slums with the stated objective of making India Open Defecation Free. The Kerala CM and the ex-Gujarat CM won’t stop at that - they have now embarked upon making us men change our eating and drinking habits, which is a pointed reference to the aforementioned soda tax, fat tax and prohibition. </span></span></p><p style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">
Earlier I used to bemoan that I had reached the age where </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">everything I like has become either illegal, immoral or fattening</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">. In the near future, I can tell that all our future </span><a><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Tann ki Baat</span></i></a></span><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_11" id="_anchor_11" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_11">[RH11]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> and </span><a><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Tunn ki Baat</span></i></a></span><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msocom_12" id="_anchor_12" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_12">[RH12]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif"> will have to remain our </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Mann ki baat</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">. My moan will morph to: </span><i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Everything I like is either illegal, illegal or illegal</span></i><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;">. </span></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_1">[RH1]</a><!--[endif]--></span>The
first month-end after demonetisation was announced in India on 8 Novermber 2008<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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title of our PM's popular weekly radio talk, meaning "Matters of the
Mind". <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_3">[RH3]</a><!--[endif]--></span>Since
re-christened as Google News <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<div class="msocomtxt" id="_com_4" language="JavaScript"><!--[endif]--><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a name="_msocom_4"></a><!--[endif]-->
</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_4">[RH4]</a><!--[endif]--></span>A
state situated in the south-west tip of India<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_5">[RH5]</a><!--[endif]--></span>Update
14 years later: I have shed 2 stone 4, and become hooked to my daily
constitutional. I go for walks without her needing to needle me.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_6">[RH6]</a><!--[endif]--></span>I
used to work with PwC, one of the Big Four, when this piece was first published , and I wrote this article
mainly for internal circulation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_7">[RH7]</a><!--[endif]--></span>Residents
of the Indian State of Gujarat along the west coast.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_8">[RH8]</a><!--[endif]--></span>Sparkling
water, a proxy for all sugary carbonated drinks<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_9">[RH9]</a><!--[endif]--></span><i>Bandh:
</i>A non-violent protest in support of a cause<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_10">[RH10]</a><!--[endif]--></span><i>Reign</i>
in the Hindi language<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_11">[RH11]</a><!--[endif]--></span>Matters
of the Body<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</span><p class="MsoCommentText"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="MsoCommentReference"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Fat%20VAT%20etc%20.docx#_msoanchor_12">[RH12]</a><!--[endif]--></span>Tunn
is Hindi slang for drunk</span></p></div></div></div><p align="center" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 10.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: center;"><i><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-80275771844139070912022-09-15T12:14:00.001+05:302023-04-17T17:21:58.615+05:30The Quiet Disappearance of the “Family Doctor”<p>When I grew up, we had one doctor who fulfilled almost all medical care needs of our family. The doctor had his clinic in the next building in the same compound. If I got hurt while playing, I would go confidently and directly to ‘Doctormam’ – Doctor Uncle in my mother-tongue – even if we had no money in our pocket. I never saw him hurried, he went about his work humming some barely audible tune under his breath.</p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">For lacerations, he would carefully
clean the area, apply tincture of iodine after telling me how brave I was, so I
braced for the sting, then apply an ointment (Furacin) topped by cotton and
sticking plaster.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If the problem was a cut on the skin,
say on the eyebrow, he would make me lie down on his examination bed, clean the
wound and take a needle and thread and stitch and dress the wound carefully. Within
a week, after one or two dressing changes, there would be a slight scar that would
vanish as I grew up. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If the problem was a fever, after his
examination and using a mercury thermometer, we would have to go to a cubicle
net to the doctor’s cabin where a compounder dished out a mixture (we called it
carminative mixture) in a translucent green glass bottle, on one side of which
he would cut and stick a dosage indicator strip based on the doctor’s
instructions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If there was a dislocation or a
fracture of an arm or a leg, the doctor would treat it in his clinic, with a
Plaster of Paris cast, where appropriate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If the patient was too weak to visit
the clinic, or there was some other reason that forced us to request a visit, he
would visit our home within a few hours for a modest visit fee. He came
carrying a doctor’s leather brief case packed with all tools of his trade. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Given the wide variety of ailments and conditions that
our family doctor routinely treated, his ‘catchment’ area was a mere 20-25
surrounding buildings with around 300-500 households. It was sufficient to ensure
that he was busy all the time. It was a rare day when his clinic did not have 3-4
patients waiting outside his cabin in the waiting area while he treated one during
consulting hours. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Our doctor’s main work was running the maternity
clinic attached to his consulting room, where patients came in for pre- and
post-delivery consults, treatment and delivery. He always had 2-3 ‘sisters’ who
would hang on to his every word and do his bidding. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Over a few years after our family doctor passed on, without
our realising it, the model of medical practice changed. His son had become a “Gynaecologist”
– he was no longer our “family doctor”. We then started going to different specialists
for various problems. One big difference I barely noticed: <b><i>We</i></b>
always had to go to these doctors’ clinics/ hospitals; they never visited us. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b><span style="background: yellow; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">All Doctors (even GPs) had at some point simply
stopped doing house calls, no matter how dire the patient’s need was</span></b>.
This is how it seems to me and came home to me forcefully in 2007: My father was
diagnosed with an incurable, aggressive cancer with very poor prognosis – death
within a few weeks. The treating surgeon in the hospital suggested we might
consider taking him home to die (which I later learnt was not because of his empathy,
but because he did not want his record besmirched by having a patient die under
his care). We hired a hospital bed and brought him home. But he was in extreme
pain and groaned if we touched him. So we first asked the treating doctor, then
another doctor whose consulting room was very near where we lived, and finally my
father’s GP of over 10 years, to come home and administer him morphine to
relieve the pain. We told them to name their price, and that we would pick them
up and drop them back. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b><i>They all refused</i></b>
saying that they did not do house calls. My father died in unrelieved
excruciating pain for a few days while we watched helplessly. The medical profession
did not help, and we could do nothing. Then we had difficulty getting a death
certificate because he died at home and was technically not under the direct treatment
of any doctor for the last few days before he died. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">I think the late 70s and early 80s mark the period
when the General Physicians with an MBBS degree, started quietly becoming less
visible, to be replaced by a dazzling variety of specialists (at least in populous
urban areas). In dental care, alone, for example, we now have specialisations
that include paediatric dentistry, cosmetic dentistry (with a
super-specialisation called “smile management”), 3D-printed prosthetics, maxillofacial
surgery, and probably many more. Earlier, we had eye surgeons. Now, we have
cataract specialists, retina specialists, squint specialists, paediatric ophthalmic
surgeons, and so on. Left-eye doctor and right-eye doctor is no longer a
far-fetched joke. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">General Physicians (GPs) have not totally disappeared.
In every batch passing out from medical school, perhaps 80% opt for further
studies to become specialists of one kind or the other, and get an MD, MS or
MCh degree. The remainder become General Physicians. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">All who opt for specialisations now require 7-10 years
to complete their medical studies. This naturally means (as compared to doctors
with only an MBBS degree) foregoing income for about 3 years more. Also, the
fact that they are so highly specialised means that to get enough patients to
make it financially worthwhile, they have to cast their net wide – impossibly
wide, which eventually pushes them into the arms of large corporate chain hospitals
that have a brand name and recognition that can pull in patients. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If (say) 20% of doctors are MBBS doctors, why do I say
that the Family Doctor has disappeared? It is because of how most of their
practices have got reshaped completely, to be unrecognisable from the kind of practice
of GPs before the late-70s. A few hypothetical examples follow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If there is a patient with a cut
requiring say, 3-5 stitches, today’s GP only cleans and dresses the wound, for
which he may charge (say) Rs.800-1,000 and then refer the patient to a
specialist – with whom there often is an allegedly hidden arrangement to get a
cut out of the surgeon’s billing (which is why such a practice is commonly
called ‘cut-practice’). The specialist will stitch the wound neatly, charge (say)
Rs.5,000 or more, which price includes the stitching, dressing and one or more follow-up
visits. The patient gets good treatment, the GP makes money from at least two
sources, and the specialist acquires a patient at a fixed cost (not known to
the patient). Sometimes, the patient gets reimbursed by his medical insurance
provider, which further sweetens the deal: Net cost to patient is near-zero. Everyone
is happy, except uninsured persons! Surely a Win-Win situation for all
concerned! <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If there is a patient with a fever or
undiagnosed growth, now the first thing the doctor orders is a battery of
blood, urine, and other diagnostic tests (sometimes scans and X-Rays too),
whether needed or not. This practice has a beautiful euphemism: Defensive Medicine.
They often recommend a particular pathological laboratory, and if the patient
gets his tests done there, the referring doctor (allegedly) gets a cash referral
commission from the lab. Thereafter, the MBBS doctor may refer the patient to a
relevant specialist doctor (say an Endocrinologist or an Oncologist). By this
referral, the MBBS doctor has successfully passed on his malpractice litigation
risk to the specialist, who in turn has passed on the risk to an insurer
through a malpractice insurance policy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the patient is medically insured, he bears
only a small part of the total cost eventually. If the patient’s case is allegedly
botched, the senior specialist’s financial risk is kept manageable through his malpractice
insurance policy, which was hardly known in the time of ‘family doctors’. Here
too, we can see a Win-Win situation for all parties, except uninsured doctors
and patients.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">If the specialist has signed a
contract to work with a large chain hospital, he enjoys the brand recognition
of the chain. But the doctors in such hospitals are under constant pressure to
attract patients, fill beds, prescribe tests and otherwise generate revenue. Indeed,
I know of a specialist doctor who closed his own practice and joined a corporate
hospital as senior doctor. In a few years, his reputation among his patients
and peers went from being a conservative doctor who recommended very few
surgeries only where unavoidable to one who prescribes unnecessary tests,
surgeries & unnecessarily long hospital stays. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Can you see any trace of a trusted
“family” connection in this chain of relationships described? That, I’m afraid,
has been lost for ever over the last half century. We can only get that if we
are fortunate to have a doctor in the family, who also lives nearby. As a
direct result of this lack of family connections, patients have become more untrusting
and litigious, and doctors have become more defensive about exposure to possibly
litigious patients or their family members – not exactly a fertile ground for
trust to flourish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">So now, there are no family doctors who do home visits
if needed (at least in populous urban areas), but there are uncounted doctors (GPs
& specialists), healthcare service providers and health/ malpractice
insurers. Each of them makes good money. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Do you think the model that medical
practice has evolved into is a good thing as compared to the more genteel era
of the ‘family doctor’? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Do you miss having a family doctor? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Do you have different thoughts/
experiences worth sharing? <span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-4642086437380280872021-09-24T09:40:00.001+05:302021-09-24T09:40:00.218+05:30How many Countries are there on Earth?<p>Lana Turner, the famous Hollywood actress of yesteryear, when
asked her age, answered with a straight face, “I don’t really know because it
keeps changing every minute".</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Believe it or not, so it almost is with the number of
countries on Earth. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>In 1945, when WW-II ended, there were 74
countries. </li><li>By 1970, the number had swelled to 127 countries
(that were either members of the UN or were observer-States) or that had <i>de
facto</i> sovereign control over their territories). </li><li>Today, there are 232 such territories (<a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/how-many-countries-are-there">World
Population Review</a>). </li><li><span style="color: red;">In the last 51 years alone, we have added 105 new
countries – about 2½ new countries every year, or one new country every 177 days.
</span></li><li>This figure does not include territories that
are still fighting for independence or claiming to be independent countries but
are not sufficiently recognised as such. These include: </li></ul><!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Kosovo</b> (landlocked; North of Greece and
East of Italy)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Abkhazia</b> (with access to Black Sea, with
Georgia in the East and Russia in the North). 5 countries recognise it as a
separate country.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>South Ossetia</b> (landlocked, with Russia to
its North and otherwise surrounded by Georgia). 5 countries recognise it as a
separate country.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Transnistria</b> (landlocked mountainous
strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine stretching from its South-East to
North-West and Ukraine from its South East to its North West). No UN Member
country recognises it as a separate country, but Abkhazia and South Ossetia (themselves
not recognised) do recognise it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Taiwan (Republic of China)</b> Its political
status is ambiguous. The PRC (What we know s China) rules only Mainland China
and has no control of Taiwan, but claims Taiwan as part of its territory under
its "One China Principle".15 countries recognise Taiwan as a country.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Tibet</b> (Landlocked, mountainous, shares its
southern border with India, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar. Lies to the South-West of
China, and is under political control of China) <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic</b> (Earlier
called Western Sahara) <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 54.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Courier New";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">o<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Nagorno-Karabakh</b> (disputed between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, with Russia enforcing agreements)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Phew! An easy question to answer, right?<o:p></o:p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-69776907360774318612021-09-21T12:23:00.002+05:302021-09-21T12:47:18.962+05:30Predictable Surprises<p>The title of this post is oxymoronic. It is also the
title of a book published by the Harvard Business School Press in 2004<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Predictable%20Surprises%201.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">[1]</span></span></span></a>.
Predictable Surprises are dangers which many of us know all along but do little
to prevent or stem. In the following paragraphs, we explain some Predictable
Surprises that have hit us in the last 25-30 years.</p>
<h2><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The COVID19 Pandemic –
and the Second Wave<o:p></o:p></span></b></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">T</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">he COVID19 pandemic was famously predicted as the greatest
threat to humankind by Bill Gates in a TED-X talk in 2015<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Predictable%20Surprises%201.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">). </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Several
epidemiologists the world over also predicted it, but none of these voices –
not even Bill Gates’s – were sufficiently heeded to prevent the Predictable Surprise
from causing untold damage. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Bill Gates said in 2015, <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 1.0cm; margin-right: 1.0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin: 0cm 1cm 8pt;"><i><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next
few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a
war. Not missiles, but microbes. … We're
not ready for the next epidemic … you can have a virus where people feel well
enough while they're infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market
… a virus spread through the air, like
the Spanish Flu back in 1918 … would spread throughout the world very, very
quickly.” <span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">That led to a deadly global Predictable Surprise. Much
of the world, including the richer countries, was caught unawares. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">We did not sufficiently heed the dire prognostications
of an exponentially larger ‘second wave’ – and many countries (among the worst
being India) were caught unprepared for a second Predictable Surprise. The
Third Wave has so far not had severe effect because we woke up partially – the
spike in cases has been mitigated by better medical infrastructure, beefed-up
vaccination drives and indications of possible ‘herd immunity’ by serological
surveys, indicating that a rising proportion of countries’ populations have
developed COVID19 antibodies. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">About two decades before this, in a single year – 2001
– the world saw two predictable surprises unfold.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h2><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Failure of Auditor Independence<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">The Enron-led financial meltdown which came about
because of what we knew all along – conflict of interests of auditors leading to
unreliable financial statements. After Enron, other large corporates like
Worldcom and Global Crossing also bit the dust. This led (over the next year or
two) to many countries introducing laws and rules mandating auditor rotation
and prohibiting audit firms from taking up non-audit work for the same client
or client-group (a good example is the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in the US). It is
widely understood that these rules only reduce but do not eliminate the
conflicts of interest. <span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<h2><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Terrorism and the Aftermath
– More Autocratic Democracies, More War<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">The 9/11 Security Meltdown led to 3,000+deaths and
6,000+ injuries in the US alone. This was a Predictable Surprise because the US
Intelligence Community had been hearing of enough chatter about impending terrorist
attacks on the US mainland. They even heard that bin Laden might try to attack
US targets using airplanes as weapons. Yet, nothing was done to elevate the perceived
threat level of what the chatter indicated. This was a failure of
prioritisation by the US Political Leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">In the years that followed, hitherto democratic Governments
hid behind the fig leaf of the War on Terror to arm themselves with and regularly
misuse excessive surveillance and spying powers, especially the PATRIOT Act in
the US and the UAPA in India. The UAPA, though enacted first in 1967, has been significantly
amended 5 times since 2004, each amendment curtailing the privacy and freedom of
the country’s citizens. This includes spying on a large scale which Edward Snowden
famously blew the whistle on. Since then, has surveillance been curtailed?
Attempts have been made to curb this, like the USA Freedom Act in the US. (In
India, the individual privacy situation has gotten worse in the
last decade). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">War was declared and affected several other countries including
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Israel, Palestine, Syria in the decades
following the 9/11 Attacks. India too has suffered several terrorist attacks.<span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<h2>Choosing where to live: An Ongoing Predictable Surprise<o:p></o:p></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">California and Japan (Kyoto to Tokyo) are the Top Two Most
Risky places to live in, ranked by proneness to natural and man-made disasters –
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Japan</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;"> with its Earthquakes
– (there are 100s of tremors every month), Tsunamis (they have happened often
enough to be one of the Japanese language words accepted into the English
lexicon, Nuclear Plant Meltdowns, and <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">California</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;"> in
the US with its risks of Forest Fires and pollution (happens every year, and for
upto 8 months every year), Earthquakes (there are 100s of tremors every month
in some places) and Volcanoes (the entire Yellowstone National Park is one huge
Caldera – it is the mouth of the largest on-land volcanic crater on Planet Earth).
SF regularly has huge sinkholes appear suddenly into which cars can get
swallowed. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Southern Gulf of Mexico bordering
states </span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">face hurricanes and typhoons every year, even over
extremely populous areas. Eastern border states (NY/NJ/Mass/Penn etc) face blizzards
and snowstorms routinely almost every winter. Frequency of occurrence of such
extreme weather events has increased to an extent that it can no longer be denied
plausibly that this is in large part due to Climate Change which has been predicted
and denied in equal measure. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Yet, people live here in ever-growing numbers in complete
denial of these obvious risks – like frogs in the steadily heating up beaker. These
places are among the most densely populated places on Earth, having the world’s
costliest real estate. Choosing to live in these states ignoring Nature’s signals
is inviting Predictable Surprises into your door. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<h2><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Tragedies of the Commons<o:p></o:p></span></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">This is a class of Predictable Surprises caused by
collapse of ecosystems because the incentives of an individual member of a
Group with common interests and shared resources has incentives that are opposed
to the Group’s well-being. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Excessive extraction of non-renewable resources, Drawing
excessive electricity from the electrical grid leading to grid collapse, Clearing
forests for agriculture, Freeloaders in Cooperative Societies who do not co-operate
with the majority, Over-extraction of ground water, too much livestock grazing,
over-fishing, and Burning of post-harvest sugarcane stumps before replanting
leading to pollution in Delhi are all examples of Predictable Surprises in the
form of collapse of the relevant ecosystem/ common resource. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 107%;">Can you think of any more such Predictable Surprises?</span></p><div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Predictable%20Surprises%201.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span style="font-size: 9pt;">This piece is based on ideas from this book, authored
by Max Bazerman and Michael Watkins.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/dc97c4a024b34c41/Desktop/Predictable%20Surprises%201.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-IN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span style="font-size: 9pt;">https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready/transcript?language=en</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-41859874909830409592013-01-01T12:08:00.000+05:302013-01-01T12:27:01.753+05:30Great online collaboration tool<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Google Drive and Google Docs have made online collaboration easier than ever before. Google Docs allows many people to edit a single copy of a single document at the same time, and allows each person to see the other's cursor's as well as his/ her own, at all times when the document is open. </div>
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<a href="http://www.mindmeister.com/?r=36211" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRBjbUX-2bxd5ZxtFkKvsm1JIQDQ6frdx613zb8tadk4d9zJbLORdefcrxlxyyFv02OsnwfHNoF_312wuoscSRFBxFjZGHd1aFLC8f3XDcQR9VnNgtjI9i73jnlHPaNOd-aaNbnA/s1600/half_banner.png" style="text-align: center;" /></a>Now, <b>Mindmeister</b>, which is a Chrome browser plug-in that integrates with Google Drive, carries this a step further. It allows multiple persons to edit or work on a single mind-map. This is mind-blowing. It allows, for example, multiple persons working on a large project, to create a mind-map of the project and keep updating progress on the tasks of the project - the updates become automatically visible to all those entitled to share that project tracking mind-map document. What's more, it supports entering percentage of work completion on every task. Any other digital artifacts related to each task etc., can also be uploaded and shared. A task can be configured to remind you or other persons with the project is shared, of tasks to be done on a daily basis - making it akin to having a secretary. I might add, that it brings slick graphics to mind-mapping. Compared to Mindmeister, open source tools like Freeplane and Freemind, in terms of graphics, seem very basic.</div>
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Best of all - you can try all the features for free, and decide whether or not to subscribe much later. This will allow you to play around and imagine a 100 ways of being able to use Mindmeister before agreeing to become a paid subscriber. There are three subscription plans to choose from, none of them very expensive, compared to the benefit one can get from using it. Once you experience collaborative working on Mindmeister, you will really want it - so be forewarned! <br />
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They even have iOS and Android apps to allow you to view the mindmaps while on the go. I have tried the Android app, and it works great for viewing even very large mindmaps, but I haven't yet used it to actually create or edit the mind-maps yet, at the time I write this. </div>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-47921346519793158902012-11-03T08:06:00.000+05:302012-11-03T16:10:17.546+05:30What victims will Smartphones claim?When television was introduced, initially, there was no impact. Then, there was a seconday impact on our social habits - we stopped visiting relatives and friends as often, lest we disturb their watching Chhayageet or the Sunday movie. Apart from that, the generation gap between children and their parents grew wider - with TV viewing being the commonest friction point.<br />
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When Desktop Publishing arrived, for some time, it was a curiosity - because only 2 fonts were available and the software was terribly slow on PCs. But within 3-4 years, jobs of "Cut-and-Paste Artists" at phototypesetting units disappeared totally. Of course, they were replaced by KPO Companies offering Pre-Print Services. <br />
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Similarly, when the Internet and mobile telephony was upon us, we did not initially realise the impact. Then several impacts happened:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Email</b> went from being an esoteric, nerdy mode of communication, to an absolute essential (What?! You don't have an email account?!) in less than 5 years.</li>
<li>The Post Office lost one major source of revenue - <b>post</b>, now pejoratively dubbed "snail-mail" - almost for ever. In the same period of time.</li>
<li><b>Porn</b> - an deluge of it - was upon us. The parents of teens among us either remained blissfully unaware, but kept wondering why their wards had become so withdrawn or rebellious; or wrung their hands with worry about the warping influence that it could have on our kids. Now, it has become so commonplace that few parents, if any, worry so much anymore.</li>
<li>When adoption of mobile phones (more or less contemporaneous with the Internet) exploded, the Post Office got another body blow - how many send greeting cards today? We use <b>SMS</b> or <b>MMS</b> or e-Mail. We innovated the "missed call". </li>
</ul>
<span style="color: red;"><b>Now, smartphones, phablets and tablets are well and truly upon us</b></span>. They have already washed away the PDAs - PIM devices that were not mobile phones. Now, I am counting what else has been washed away (at least as far as I am concerned) by the computing revolution that the smartphone represents:<br />
<ul>
<li>No more "<b>mobile stereo music devices</b>" like Walkman, Discman, or Radio. Even iPods are on their way out. </li>
<li>No more radios or even Car FM Radios for <b>music</b> - we can choose what we want to hear on a 16GB USB stick that can carry a zillion songs. And we can get FM Radio on some of our smartphones. </li>
<li>For important <b>news on the go</b>, now, there is Twitter - anything that I really need to know will be on Twitter quicker than I can hear it on radio. </li>
<li>No more <b>wristwatches</b> except as a style statement. </li>
<li>No more <b>alarm clocks</b>. Anyway, I can no longer imagine leaving home without my Google Nexus 7. </li>
<li>If there is a choice, today, I would choose e-Books over <b>physical books</b>. Imagine book that can be read at night with the lights off, without disturbing your spouse! And that does not burden you any more? I am now reading more books than since my college days - due to the sheer convenience. A book often weighs more than a Tablet. </li>
<li><b>Newspapers and Magazines</b> will die out too. Newsweek, and Martha Graham are two big marquees that have gone online only. There are several online-only publications like Huffington Post (which recently bagged a Pulitzer) and Business Insider. I am still to wean myself off newspapers, it is too ingrained a habit - but that can happen, very, very soon. Already, I don't remember when I last bought a magazine at a newsstand. Not because I don't read them - but because I get a host of Indian and foreign newspapers and magazines on Flipboard or Google Current; updated automatically every time I open it. Sameeer and Vineet Jain need to really worry - their huge, profitable franchise is likely to decline, but before they do, almost the entire newspaper industry in India may wither away. </li>
<li>I now use my Netbook (already written off by many as a dodo, but still surprisingly useful and convenient) only to write - and rarely to read. That includes work-related reading as well. So probably, <b>PCs and laptops</b> will fade from my memory. Already, all working in my office have their own tablets <b>and</b> smartphones. They often share documents using Google Drive, which could be done using a Tablet as well. </li>
<li>Much less spending on <b>movies</b> - with smartphones capable of HD video, Teenagers will watch movies in cinema theatres only for the company, or for new movies that they cannot download and watch. For the older generation, it is easier to watch old movies or song clips, or listen to old songs on the Internet; and what can be more convenient than watching it on a tablet in Hi-Def? </li>
<li>The jobs of <b>watchmen and security personnel</b> will disappear - but not so fast - what with cheap DVRs and security cameras with output viewable on a Tab wherever you are, proving to be more efficacious - my friend, an industrialist, keeps tabs on his factory using his Tab over wi-fi or using a SIM-based Internet connection, no matter where he is. He actually caught one of his security guards stealing copper wire by playing back CCTV footage; and nabbed the thief before he reached home! </li>
</ul>
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<b><i><span style="color: red;">Can you add to this list of possible victims of smartphones?</span></i> </b></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-86829263816813163712012-09-12T08:07:00.000+05:302012-09-12T08:07:00.698+05:30Continued Rise of Evils identified as Culprits of the 2008 Crash<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In 2008, in the wake of the financial crisis, assets under management in so-called "retail alternative funds" in the US [a.k.a. alternative investments, and defined to include absolute return, commodities, currency trading, dedicated short bias, equity energy, leveraged strategies (both long and inverse), managed futures, market neutral, multi-strategy alternatives, natural resources, options arbitrage, precious metals, real estate and volatility strategies; but to exclude distressed debt] crashed in the US from $368Bn to $275Bn. However, as a percentage of "all long term retail fund AUM" [defined to include mutual funds, closed-end funds, ETFs and UCITs (Undertakings for Collective Investments in Securities) structures, and excludes limited partnerships and separately managed accounts], it never fell - indeed, the figure of $275Bn in 2008 was 5% of LT Retail Fund AUM in 2008 whereas the bigger figure of $368Bn was 4% of the same figure in 2007. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">From 2009, the share of alternative investments as a percentage of the all long term retail fund AUM started rising once again, boht, in the US, and globally excluding the USand they have been growing @21% CAGR in absolute terms in the US, and at 11% globally excluding the US; till 2011.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">At the same time, several other disturbing parameters have been heading in the "wrong" direction. See the table below, which shows these statistics as they stood at three different times I have tracked them in my blog. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Reading this table closely shows that the average American is on the right path (reduced personal debt per citizen; higher GDP per citizen) but the US Government has continued its profligacy with a vengeance (rise in National Debt as % of GDP; Total Debt per Citizen; and US Debt held by Foreign Countries). Just look at the US Total Liabilities and US Interest Burden per citizen from April, 2010 to September, 2011 to see what havoc the US fiscal and monetary policies are wreaking. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What is worse, the investment bankers are back with a vengeance: as paras 1. and 2. above indicate, and as the figure of Currency and Credit Derivatives in the Table below confirm, what Warren Buffett famously termed as Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction are growing in value at an uncomfortable pace. Derivative exposures have <b>risen </b>by as much as $91 Trillion (or 6.37 times the US GDP in just 30 months), when they <b>should have been falling</b>! </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">It is time that the US Investment bankers are stopped from selling "innovative" risk-masking derivative products - for the sake of the financial health of the entire world.</span></li>
</ol>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>Table 1</b></div>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cols="4" frame="VOID" rules="NONE">
<colgroup><col width="226"></col><col width="75"></col><col width="72"></col><col width="81"></col></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" width="226"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">Parameter</span></b></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;D MMM YY" sdval="40276" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" width="75"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">8 Apr 10</span></b></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;D MMM YY" sdval="40750" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" width="72"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">26 Jul 11</span></b></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;D MMM YY" sdval="41163" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" width="81"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">11 Sep 12</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US National Debt as % of US GDP</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;0%" sdval="0.89" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">89%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;0%" sdval="0.98" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">98%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;0%" sdval="1.04" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">104%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US National Debt per citizen ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="41381" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">41,381</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="46619" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">46,619</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="50959" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">50,959</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US GDP per citizen ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="46381" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">46,381</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="47488" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">47,488</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="48804.7069428185" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">48,805</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US Total Debt per citizen ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="180484" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">1,80,484</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="176113" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">1,76,113</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="181307" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">1,81,307</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US Personal Debt per citizen ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="53787" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">53,787</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="51441" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">51,441</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="50132" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">50,132</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US Interest Burden per citizen ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="1493" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">1,493</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="11664" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">11,664</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="12343" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">12,343</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US Total Assets per citizen ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="234181" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">2,34,181</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="243086" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">2,43,086</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="296124" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">2,96,124</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US Total Liabilities per citizen ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="350054" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">3,50,054</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="1026974" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">10,26,974</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="16393;0;#,##0" sdval="1054522" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">10,54,522</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US Gross Domestic Product ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">14.333 Tr</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">14.809 Tr</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">15.342 Tr</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">US Debt held by Foreign Countries ($):</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">3.875 Tr</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">4.584 Tr</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">5.376 Tr</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">Currency and Credit Derivatives ($):</span></b></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">648.975 Tr</span></b></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">611.499 Tr</span></b></td>
<td align="RIGHT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><b><span style="font-family: Liberation Serif; font-size: x-small;">740.277 Tr</span></b></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>Sources of data: </b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Para 1 and 2 above</b>: from "<i>The Mainstreaming of Alternative Investments - Fueling the Next Wave of Growth in Asset Management</i>", a Report by the Financial Services Practice of McKinsey & Co, Sep 2012.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Para 3 : </b>extracted on 11 Sep, 2012 from www.usdebtclock.org,</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Table 1 above</b>: extracted on dates mentioned in cols 2-4 of table 1 from www.usdebtclock.org, </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-6676752267945820142012-07-28T17:00:00.000+05:302012-07-28T17:00:20.659+05:30NRIs in US: Some Food for Thought<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">There is a large
contingent of “Hindustan Leavers” in the West, in places like the
US, Canada, and the UK. In the US, there are probably over a million NRI Dollar-millionaires, in terms of liquid assets. Let us take the case of one such NRI with exactly a million US in liquid savings under his belt.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Such an NRI is
either a well-paid salaried professional or a businessman. Either way, these
days, the economic environment in the US has turned hostile for both these
groups. Business climate has deteriorated significantly in most business sectors; and those still in jobs are facing long periods of zero pay increases, and near-zero lateral shift options.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Property, debt and
equity (including through mutual funds) are no longer attractive
investment options in the US, with positive returns by no means guaranteed. For
many NRIs, their home loans are “underwater”, meaning that the loan
outstanding is higher than the value the home will fetch if sold.
Even if it is not, home prices are so low that most cannot
countenance selling the homes they live in. Those approaching
retirement age, say those around 60 years of age, are facing the grim
prospect of living on their capital post-retirement, because, the
years since 9/11 have been “the lost decade”, with their savings
dwindling to half or less what it was worth before that watershed
event. So, even if he has unencumbered savings and investments of
US $1 Mn or its equivalent, with current earnings of around the same
sum, assuming interest earning @3% on savings, they are looking at a
net <b>pre</b><b>-tax </b>annual investment income of no more than
$30,000 per annum or $2,500 per month, which is close to the minimum
wage in some places in the US. So much for the attractiveness of
being a dollar millionaire!
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Now assume that the
same person chucks up everything and brings his $1Mn to India. He
gets Rs.5.6 crores. For Rs.0.6 crores, he can buy a comfortable,
lavish home of his choice in any place other than in Greater Mumbai
(Mumbai-Navi Mumbai-Thane) and NCR (Delhi-Rohtak-Gurgaon-Noida). If
he wants to avoid traffic jams, pollution and bad roads, he needs to
give a few other cities, like Bangalore and Chennai a miss. (Think <a href="http://stayinmysore.in/">Mysore</a>, Surat, Coimbatore, Chandigarh) The
remaining Rs.5 crores, he can invest in nearly risk-free securities
at no less than 8.5% per annum. Even allowing for average rate of tax
@28%, he will be able to earn after-tax income of over Rs.250,000 per
month – a princely sum that takes him into the wealthiest 1% of
India's population! At a cost of not much more than Rs.10,000 per
month, a mere 4% of his monthly after-tax income, he can get all the
domestic help he needs, to live a cosy, pampered life. For a few
Lakhs more, they can get entry into the most exclusive clubs in any
town – a passport to a genteel life of leisure. He has the chance of investing almost all his spare cash in gold (taking Nouriel Roubini's advice to heart) and thereby reduce his tax bill (capital gains for gold held for over 3 years is taxed at concessional rate).</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Indeed, he will
find that while, in the US, he can look forward to only bad news, and
being able to barely make ends meet financially, in India, he is
positively rich – and concomitantly, has a risk appetite and margin
for losses that allows him to earn superior returns through judicious
investment in equity shares.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">So then, what is
stopping a reverse India-bound exodus of rich NRIs? </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">First and probably foremost, inertia
and resistance to change. They have become telephonically mobile but
geographically immobile! But there is evidence that many are moving when they see the light, rather than waiting to feel the heat of a receding economy.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Second, many of them think that India
means Mumbai or Delhi; the rest of India does not exist. </span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Third, many cite unwillingness of children to move to India. That should not be a problem for the "empty nest" stage NRIs. </span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Fourth,
they simply haven't realised how cheap the Indian rupee has become;
and how this changes the scenario materially. This, juxtaposed with the fact that India is among the few countries where business sentiment continues to be buoyant, with several attractive investment options, offers a compelling proposition: choose India as a retirement destination! </span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Indeed, some who are
reluctant to move lock, stock and barrel, can simply use India as a
waiting room to wait out the recession – and then return to their
locked up homes when the US economy looks up again. There is no need to give up US citizenship or green card. All you need is a PIO card! </span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Good idea, don't
you think?</span> </div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-21748080272613825342012-07-14T14:31:00.002+05:302012-07-14T14:34:33.199+05:30Gender, Privacy and EthicsLong back, I had <a href="http://rajesh-haldipurs-blog.blogspot.in/2009/11/when-technology-runs-ahead-of-laws-and.html">blogged</a> about why, when it came to procreation, people are seduced by technology to sally forth into uncharted moral and legal waters, instead of simply accepting the morally and legally acceptable solution called adoption.<br />
<br />
We are now finding a similar set of dilemmas coming into focus thanks to the Pinki Pramanik case - that of the concept of gender and its intersection (or shall we say, collision?) with rights to privacy and our sense of right and wrong (ethics and morality). Here, too, a simple solution exists.<br />
<br />
Pinki Pramanik thinks she is a lady. That should be enough for the rest of us to treat her as one. If our law allows ladies to be exempt from being punished for rape, that is a defect of our law - and anyone consistently claiming to be a lady should be allowed the benefit of such a law.<br />
<br />
If our culture can tolerate, and indeed assign roles (however peripheral) to transgenders or cross-dressers in our culture, and give them the right to proudly say that they are <i>hijras</i>, and even give Shikandi (who thought she was a lady), the right to be treated in battle as a lady in the Mahabharata, there is no reason why, when it comes to a case like Pinki, she should be harassed and humiliated. She should be treated as a person with due solicitousness - just as we treat the differently-abled in society.<br />
<br />
If it is proved that Pinki has committed violence, she should definitely be punished for it. But, here again, the allegation is a private criminal complaint, and the only person who has the right (<i>locus standi</i>) to prosecute Pinki for the offence alleged is her partner who alleges the violence. Hopefully, the decision will go though without the taint of the controversy about Pinki's gender clouding the decision, because that is really a non-issue. (In fact, just as I get ready to post this entry that has been a few days in the draft stage, comes the news that Pinki's partner has admitted to have been spurred to make the rape and masculinity charges by a person who was engaged in a bitter property dispute with Pinki). Whatever is the truth, what becomes clear is that Pinki's suffering was unnecessary and avoidable. She has fallen victim to the general intolerance of ambiguity in our Society. Everything has to be right or wrong; black or white - no space for grey!<br />
<br />
In sports, at the international level, the case of Caster Semenya has brought out the difficulty of "proving" gender. Instead of learning lessons from that episode, we are going headlong into committing the same mistake, forgetting that mandated gender testing is an affront to the target's right to privacy and human rights.<br />
<br />
On a slightly different note, Bidhan Barua's case - of his right to undergo gender-altering surgeries - has also got its fair share of headlines. Here too, the simple solution as I see it, is to allow people like Bidhan do what he/she wants - like we do not raise eyebrows for cases of Botox shots for eliminating wrinkles and crow's feet.<br />
<br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-17011728437981249112012-07-05T20:14:00.000+05:302012-07-28T17:04:41.453+05:30Oriental Insurance Rejects Mediclaim Claim Because Hospital Reduced Bill !<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In November, 2011, I <a href="http://rajesh-haldipurs-blog.blogspot.in/2011/11/hit-by-randomness.html">had written</a> about the maid in my office who met with a freak accident and lost her eye when someone chucked a stone that hit her while she was travelling by Central Railway local train. <span style="background-color: white;">This is a <b>sickeningly sad and cruel </b>sequel to this poignant story. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Darshana was admitted to Bombay Hospital where she underwent re-constructive plastic surgery on her nose bridge that was shattered; and on her eye, where the entire socket was crushed. She had to stay indoors for almost a month after she was discharg</span><span style="background-color: white;">ed from hospital, wearing dark glasses. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">During this convalescence period, she remembered that she had paid for a Mediclaim policy and, after some looking around, was relieved to find that it was valid and covered upto Rs.50,000 of medical expenses. When it came up for renewal, she somehow scrabbled around for money and paid the premium and renewed it, as she now realised more acutely the value of health insurance. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Darshana had so much goodwill with her several employers that they pooled money and helped her pay most of her hospital and post-hospitalisation costs. The hospital bill came to Rs.1,17,090 and, after explaining the circumstances and pleading for a lower bill, the doctor and surgeons' fees were waived, and a final bill of (-)48,022 was issued representing the reduced charges. She managed to collect the Rs.69,068 needed to pay off her hospital bill. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Barely three months later, Darshana's husband died. Now, she was required to be the sole breadwinner for her aged mother and 11-year-old son. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Now let us get back to the saga of her Mediclaim policy with Oriental. She managed to file her claim in respect of the policy about a month after the accident. The TPA </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">(MD India)</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"> first rejected her claim saying that she had not intimated them within 24 hours of the accident. We explained her circumstances to Oriental Insurance, and the fact that she did not know that the insurance company needed to be intimated immediately, and the technical defect was condoned. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">We then went through a chain of correspondence with the TPA, and though we responded promptly within 2-4 days, the next letter from the TPA always came after about a month. Each time, some small point or the other was raised, and we clarified, or did the needful. After almost 6 months, during which they sent an investigator to meet Darshana and also sent an investigator to Bombay Hospital to check the genuineness of the bills, on July 3rd, 2012, the TPA of Oriental issued us a copy of a Pre-Repudiation Statement. They gave two reasons for rejecting the claim : </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">(1) the exact amount of the claim was not mentioned in the claim form filed by Darshana; and </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">(2) the final bill was not submitted; and that only an interim bill was submitted. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Since our policy cover was Rs.50,000 and there were NIL exclusions, obviously, if an expense of Rs.69,068 was spent, the claim amount would be Rs.50,000. This is also obvious from the policy document itself! Hence, the first ground of repudiation was a lame, hypertechnical ground. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The second ground was a patent untruth as Darshana </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">had submitted </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">the original final bill. In any case, we emailed them a copy of the same. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">When we spoke to the MD India Head for Thane, Mr Pallaw Saxena, and the officer (Ms Rema) at Oriental </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Insurance</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">, they agreed to consider our submissions. In just 2 more days, we get an email telling us that the claim has been rejected - for a new reason - </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">that the Final Bill sum is negative</b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">. By citing the Final Bill, they have admitted that the second ground in the Pre-Repudiation Statement was an untruth! Worse, </span><b><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">effectively, they have rejected the genuine claim because the Hospital reduced its bill!</span></b><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">We explained the obvious to both, Mr Saxena, and Mr Adhav, the Divisional Manager of Oriental Insurance in Thane - that these two bills were running bills, and the arithmetic sum of these bills was the same as the receipt amount - and the receipt mentioned the two bill nos that the payment pertained to. Yet, as of today, a third blow has hit Darshana - her genuine, valid health insurance claim has been rejected. Of course, I await the formal letter from oriental Insurance, but going by the unhelpfulness of the Oriental Insurance people, I do not expect a reversal of decision, going against the TPA's (dishonest) rejection of claim. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Now we have to find out what grievance redressal mechanism is appropriate. Grievance Cell of Oriental? Ombudsman? IRDA? Consumer Protection? Which forum is appropriate? In which order? Are any of them mutually exclusive? What are the next steps? Go to the Press? So many questions; and no clear answers. </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;">Need advice. Anyone who reads this and can advise, please tell us what to do next.</span></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"> If you know anyone who can help with advice, please share this with them. I have already begun the process by writing to </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;">the Chief Manager Customer Services Dept, of Oriental Insurance. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">For whatever it is worth, I am uploading the scans of the Insurance Policy, the two bills and receipt </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">of Bombay Hospital </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">and the Pre-Repudiation Statement of the TPA. These documents are sufficient to justify Darshana's claim, and you can see for yourself the </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; color: red;">unfairness of it all</span></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">After our insistent follow-ups, it has reached a stage where both, Mr Adhav of Oriental Insurance and Mr Saxena of MD India are not picking up our phone calls.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><b>PS: Update: </b>I am glad to report that since I wrote this entry, the TPA has quietly paid the claim, with not so much as an explanation for the change of heart. The amount has been credited to the lady's bank account today - Jul 28, 2012.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUO9K12YI5EB94AX77f2fsWPbJ1mcqpHlRIuM_anH3qNFrPLMPurKbzvi4oC4ZSQFb9QUEbjJKnK2OYGn7jWhWE5tUoGUcKXlCBS9ZWHS-XTDd25yTwe5LqH1-4Pe8l59Spdrp7Q/s1600/Darshana+Pre-Repudiation+Statement.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUO9K12YI5EB94AX77f2fsWPbJ1mcqpHlRIuM_anH3qNFrPLMPurKbzvi4oC4ZSQFb9QUEbjJKnK2OYGn7jWhWE5tUoGUcKXlCBS9ZWHS-XTDd25yTwe5LqH1-4Pe8l59Spdrp7Q/s1600/Darshana+Pre-Repudiation+Statement.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Pre-Repudiation Statement </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3r2ngNSDGaPR06lKjJpSkQLf5avQN82unaELx5RZm3lRip9ok23Q4h1ttpzSYtRLYxng0KzNNW4U6ro0324wnVNRWbU7xLxf3tp1NRcf6z-JKQMBiaq8Tpy7ke3rVjhHs4QzK4A/s1600/Darshana+Policy+Document1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3r2ngNSDGaPR06lKjJpSkQLf5avQN82unaELx5RZm3lRip9ok23Q4h1ttpzSYtRLYxng0KzNNW4U6ro0324wnVNRWbU7xLxf3tp1NRcf6z-JKQMBiaq8Tpy7ke3rVjhHs4QzK4A/s1600/Darshana+Policy+Document1.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">First Page of Mediclaim Policy </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw932NJVtgUB4nBJY-dUgfjY1e7jbILShST0b4Sd_39u3T887RBkTdmI0foCTH7Au0DMB5U4K2X-UCZa9w9sMswVa1ewOqdBg4TdaMaEPUbMZu3DH-estpmF24Y0RLWcfnj6L73A/s1600/Darshana+Policy+Document2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw932NJVtgUB4nBJY-dUgfjY1e7jbILShST0b4Sd_39u3T887RBkTdmI0foCTH7Au0DMB5U4K2X-UCZa9w9sMswVa1ewOqdBg4TdaMaEPUbMZu3DH-estpmF24Y0RLWcfnj6L73A/s1600/Darshana+Policy+Document2.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Second Page of Mediclaim Policy</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglBwNAMrJqrbv_tPPCP5DPQbUBVh3A5VAfeAngLj0gVoBLR4FIu8S_XM0FjbzWECPlW6YSCJem8zSc_sjggiJwwd5NhYC8uyuBZXDdBLODiMDUcGZfKwupXNoibjlPjysP-8cAMA/s1600/Final+Bill.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglBwNAMrJqrbv_tPPCP5DPQbUBVh3A5VAfeAngLj0gVoBLR4FIu8S_XM0FjbzWECPlW6YSCJem8zSc_sjggiJwwd5NhYC8uyuBZXDdBLODiMDUcGZfKwupXNoibjlPjysP-8cAMA/s1600/Final+Bill.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Final Bill of Bombay Hospital</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSHLBhEjw8OCLTM2r7DWLztaKgeMYJKieaPLjcaj2r2vuz5kqn213Sk23G6-hObrwSZn7h8W5v3AIfTa6maKV0M-L8fuypQjk2w2P3AZYB-NnNI5uNW-yfjLlGnk06f6339KYumQ/s1600/Interim+Bill.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSHLBhEjw8OCLTM2r7DWLztaKgeMYJKieaPLjcaj2r2vuz5kqn213Sk23G6-hObrwSZn7h8W5v3AIfTa6maKV0M-L8fuypQjk2w2P3AZYB-NnNI5uNW-yfjLlGnk06f6339KYumQ/s1600/Interim+Bill.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Interim Bill of Bombay Hospital </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrWd2Ne22c18RajidrO2qM0DUjqFGoXsCoJc3EzuNkDPr3DhJ_fTOpQ0HdtPmuemyv1CEh0We3eWBQgF0a1qp1cpFBrltsc6AE-FaAURyOpMEOcCX4s3obmIzCxFKFfBegvYsteA/s1600/Receipt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrWd2Ne22c18RajidrO2qM0DUjqFGoXsCoJc3EzuNkDPr3DhJ_fTOpQ0HdtPmuemyv1CEh0We3eWBQgF0a1qp1cpFBrltsc6AE-FaAURyOpMEOcCX4s3obmIzCxFKFfBegvYsteA/s1600/Receipt.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Receipt of Bombay Hospital - Note the 2 Bill Nos to which the Receipt pertains</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-56432193684806681022012-06-14T16:23:00.004+05:302012-06-14T16:32:40.249+05:30Intellectual Ventures (or Vultures?)<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Intellectual Ventures (IV) is a venture
that mostly buys up an ever-growing collection of patents. It invites
others to pay a membership fee and get “membership” of this
collection for a heavy one-time fee, sometimes in hundreds of
millions of dollars, which gives them:</div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
the right to license or purchase
any patent from its collection to use as defense in battles against
its rivals</div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
the right to not have the venture
use its patents against the member
</div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
the right to get a share of
membership fees paid by every future member. Thus, there is an
automatic incentive to join early, as in any multi-level pyramid
scheme.
</div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Nowadays, it is observed that IV has
taken to selling some patents from their huge collection. This means
that if they want to start a battle, they make sure that they never
fight in their own name. This fact is shrouded behind a byzantine
maze of shell companies so that, invariably, the entity that fights
is an unknown entity that has incidentally come to own the patents
required to fight. This arrangement with the shell company is
suspected to have a “back end” so that at least some of the
benefits that may accrue from any battle using the patents sold by IV
to the remote entity, flows back to IV.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Intellectual Ventures's <i>modus
operandi </i>includes putting
on a front where they offer the public through overawed or otherwise
unskeptical press reporters, a glimpse of its huge collection of
patents. They take reporters around its innovation laboratories where
they spend millions to “encourage innovation”. IV keeps drilling
home the message that they do not want to fight; indeed, they strive
to avoid battles. They only help their membership fee paying members
to use its collection of patents for offense in battles against their
business rivals. Thus, this venture gives out patents on hire to its
members who have insufficient or no patents in their own personal
collection. They also put in a friendly word with their members'
business rivals, when they think it might help, to help out their
members. They do not like to talk about their members, but large
corporations like Microsoft and Verizon are known to be early members
of this collection. Their members also include tiny startups like
Vlingo who need (and hence bought) patents from IV's collection to
use to fight their business rivals. Verizon also is known to have
bought some patents in its battle against TiVo.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Now there are some who have a completely different view of Intellectual Ventures. Their view can be easily be understood with a few words being replaced by words that differ slightly in meaning. They suggest the following search-and-replace commands be run on the paragraphs above:<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" style="text-align: center;">
<colgroup><col width="220*"></col>
<col width="220*"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: 1px solid #000000; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0.1cm;" width="52%"><b>Search for</b></td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000; padding: 0.1cm;" width="48%"><b>Replace with</b></td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">membership</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">protection</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">member</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">protectee</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">patent</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">weapon</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">license
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">borrow</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">defense
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">offense</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">membership fee</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">protection money</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">collection</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">arsenal</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">battles</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">lawsuits</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="52%">fight</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="48%">sue</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Of course, there are still others who recommend another search-and-replace that is suggested in the title of this post. What do you think? Comments welcome.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-68346062120834052562012-04-02T22:00:00.000+05:302012-04-03T19:35:08.222+05:30Global Power Shift<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">This is just a series of observations
that support my idea that we are living in what, in a few decades,
will be seen as tumultous times.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Recently, there was a news item that
stated that by 2020, China will become a larger economy than the US;
and by 2050, India will top even China, leaving the US a distant
third. This is not someone's wishful thinking, but just the magic of
compounding – of economic growth, rather than of your money in a bank.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Today, we are all living at the
crossroads of history. A subtle power shift, significantly visible in
time frames of decades, but barely perceptible at the time frame
level of a day or a week, is happening all the time. Witness the
following:
</span></div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The Arab Spring happened over a
period of months and still seems dramatic. I doubt if the spring has
completely spent itself. It is not yet all cool in Syria and Egypt, and it may yet erupt again in some other
nation(s).</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Technology laughs at national and
geographic borders. Accountability and clean governance pressures
were earlier driven within each nation's power centres, laterally.
However, now there are vertical pressures that cross national
borders earily – thanks to telecom, internet, satellite
broadcasting and global moneychangers (both, traders and
speculators).
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Unregulated or unpoliced space
soon becomes populated with groups that thrive on chaos and absence
of regulation. Witness Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, etc. to see the
truth of this.</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Unregulated pockets in otherwise
regulated economies also give birth to chaos. While this is not to
be taken as an approval of the concept of a police state, it is
sobering to hear Paddy Ashdown cite a fact that 60% of the $4M that
funded the 9/11 bombings passed through the WTC itself!
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Now, the enemy is within each
country. Thus, for properly defending a country, the defence
ministry may need to speak to the Health ministry (to protect
against pandemics); Ministry of Commerce and Industry (the hi-tech
infrastructure of the country is sensitive and vulnerable to
attack), Home Affairs (to track infiltrators), and Transportation
(Air/ ship/ road security). Defending our borders is just not
enough.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The maximum vulnerability is at
all “interconnection points” (airports, docks, bus and train
terminals). So defending at such points necessarily means overlap in
responsibilities and powers. Hence, working with others efficiently
is a capability all need to develop.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Defence co-operation is not
enough. Nations and people living in them need to realize that war
is an immensely expensive zero-sum game that can go on infintely to
their collective detriment. Only then can long-festering disputes
cool down sufficiently to permit normal life.</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In 1945, when WW-II ended, there
were about 100 countries. Today, there are nearly 200. We are adding almost 1.5 new countries a year on an average over the last 67 years. At the same, time, we have witnessed European countries
lowering the borders and becoming a single currency area (that initiative is arguably in the endgame stage already).
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Siberia has such inclement weather
that in the Far East province of Russia (area double of India)
less than 60 Lakh people live. Greater Mumbai has double that
population! However, it is a source of power for Russia – most of
its natural gas and oil is sourced from this vast area.
Surprisingly, this is a source of power for China too! Global
warming has given rise to vast wheat fields in Siberia – but there
is no one in Russia to feed. Russia's population is shrinking. But
we see that some 600,000 Chinese migrate to Siberia, cultivate wheat
during the summer on vast leased farm tracts, and come back home
every year. This wheat feeds a good proportion of the Chinese
population.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">China is controlling a larger and
larger part of the world – without firing a shot. They are, quite
literally, either buying them up, or colonizing through sheer numbers of immigrants. They
are “partnering for prosperity” with several poorer countries, notably in Africa.
Thereby, it is creating a China-centric circle of influence that
rivals that of the US already. China has trade relationships with
Korea, Japan and other countries in the neighborhood, and lower tariffs
for poorer countries. In Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia, the ethnic
Chinese population is a significant, loosely united power bloc. In
BRICS and in the Asian Free Trade Zone, China is assuming an
increasingly dominant role. For example, on Iran, both China and
Russia have vetoed UN Resolutions sponsored by the US for increased
sanctions. China is still the largest customer of Iranian oil, with
India being second.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Chinese yuan is threatens to emerge as an alternative reserve currency in addition to the dollar and euro, which (when, not if, China can get away
with it) will deflate the US balloon much faster than one can
imagine. When that happens, the US will be awash (not overnight, but over a finite period of, say, 3 years) with inflation of the trillion dollars of bonds that China won't need. Thus, the US seems poised to deteriorate as a global power. </span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Inflation robs from the poor,
and shifts even more economic power to the rich, so it will
exacerbate social tensions in the US, as the feeling is already rife
that the US bends backwards to accommodate the rich, at the cost of
the poor. The recent BRICS meet discussed this concept, but shied
away from pushing immediately for it. If, and when, yuan gets
adopted as an alternative reserve currency, the power shift will
accelerate.</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">I intend to develop this line of thinking further in coming days and weeks. I welcome inputs in the form of comments from anyone who has more to contribute to this line of thinking.</span>
</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-80958209437336008542012-03-15T15:08:00.000+05:302012-03-15T15:11:20.405+05:30Dysprosium<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">No, it is not something bad, like
dysfunctional or dyslexia. It is not a medicine either. A few of us,
barring chemistry freaks, may know this from the Periodic Table
of Elements, part of a group called Lanthanides. It is an element, like Iron, or Copper. Except that the world manufactures (from
natural ores) only about 100 tonnes per annum of this substance. So
it is rarer than gold, literally speaking. But strangely, currently worth much less than its weight in gold, at close to $2,500 per <b>kg</b>. Gold is many, many times costlier. So what?</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">China makes 99 tonnes out of that 100
tonnes. So what? China has restricted its export, along with a clutch
of similar improbably named elements collectively called as rare
earth metals. China has only 12 years' worth of output (estimated)
left in the clay mines that are the source of the ore. Naturally,
China wants to conserve its reserves for its own use, and have
clamped export limits. The United States, as always, wants China to
ease these export restrictions, going to the extent of filing a WTO
complaint against China.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Strangely, China has 35% of world
reserves but accounts for 97% of current world production of rare
earth metal oxides! And guess what, USA has significant rare earth
reserves (1/3<sup>rd</sup> of China's according to the figures put
out by the US Geological Survey's Mineral Commodity Summaries,
January 2010
) that it is currently <b>not exploiting </b><b>at all</b>.
Indeed, the report notes that “Bastnäsite deposits in China and
the United States constitute the largest percentage of the world’s
rare-earth economic resources
”. Molycorp Minerals, a mining
company, is even as I write this, engaged in a fight with the US
Government to get one of its mines re-opened, lying closed since
2002. Australia and the CIS countries also have significant reserves
that are currently almost not utilised at all. Why so? The answer may
lie in the genesis of the name: <i>Dysprosium </i>is derived from the
Greek “<span style="color: #333333;"><i>dysprositos</i></span>”
that means hard-to-get-at!
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Toyota requires 100 grammes <i>per car
</i>of this substance to make the drive motors for its hybrid car,
Prius. The entire world's current output would be sufficient for only
a million hybrid cars. But then, they are not the only guys vying for
the substance.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">It is used in almost all mobile phones,
flat screen TVs and computer monitors, nuclear reactor fuel rods,
magnetomechanical sensors, actuators, automotive catalytic
converters, high-precision liquid fuel injectors and acoustic and
ultrasonic transducers (don't worry about what some of these things
are or do – suffice it to say that they generate demand for
Dysprosium). Wind power generators require it, as do hard disks.
High-intensity commercial lighting and lasers use an alloy including
this.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Can we manufacture it synthetically?
Not yet! So the world has no alternative to focus on commercializing
the existing reserves, and ore-processing capacity.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">What if the world runs out of
Dysprosium? We can still make do, but any substitutes will most
likely be heavier and more inefficient with respect to magnetic
properties. So no more sleek iPhones, tablets, netbooks. Non-renewable (nuclear, wind) energy will become costlier. No Prius. Unless we learn to make it synthetically, or find much more efficient magnets not using Dysprosium. </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-17794495466296197552012-03-12T22:16:00.000+05:302012-03-12T22:23:01.135+05:30The Horror in Panjwai ... and the last 9 years reviewed<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">It all began with Bush declaring imperiously, "If you're not
with us, you're with them".</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">And then began the sordid, shameful
saga in 2003 that has yet to end. Of two more wars that should never have
happened. Of a war being waged on a common noun.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">It began by the US occupying high moral
ground. Of 3000+ innocent victims of terror<span style="font-size: medium;"><sup><b>1</b></sup></span>.
But it led to documented deaths of well over <a href="http://www.iraqbodycount.org/">105,000+
Iraqis</a>. Several times more people injured or violently displaced
from their homes. Lancet's 2<sup>nd</sup> <a href="http://web.mit.edu/CIS/pdf/Human_Cost_of_War.pdf">peer-reviewed
study of Iraqi casualties</a> indicated 654,965 excess deaths, or
2.5% of Iraq's population. That was in 2006. In 2007, the Opinion
Research Business, an independent polling agency located in London,
published estimates of the total war casualties in Iraq since the
US-led invasion of Iraq in 200 at over 1.2 million deaths
(1,220,580). Of these, 48% died from a gunshot wound, 20% from the
impact of a car bomb, 9% from aerial bombardment, 6% as a result of
an accident and 6% from another blast/ordnance. As of Jan, 2008, this
estimate had been revised to 1,033,000. Of course, such findings are
contested – none can ever claim accuracy. But then, you get the
drift. How many Afghani and Iraqi Arabs should die for each American
who died in the WTC Tower crash? All this toll in a war started on
the basis of what proved to be a pack of lies told to the whole
world!</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">A country that was ruled ruthlessly for
34 years by a dictator was thrown from that frying pan into an
intense fire of an internecine escalating spiral of senseless
violence. The situation today is such that now many Iraqis must yearn for
the days under a tyrant called Saddam.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Since 2003 when Saddam was deposed by
an intense military offensive, death has mostly rained down on Iraq
from the air, where no American lives can be lost. When at last the
Americans sent in their ground troops, they first created a
min-America within Iraq – the heavily fortified Green Zone. And
then let loose their maniacs and perverts. Like Lynndie England and
Charles Graner in Abu Ghraib, a prison housing 7,500 prisoners in
2004. After their unpardonable acts of perversion, they were escorted
safely to the US, where Lynndie gave safe birth to a child conceived
in the midst of perversion, and then spent a leisurely 3 years in a
swank military prison in the balmy climate of California spread over
19,000 sq mts and meant to house only 400 female prisoners. She
served in the prison kitchen as punishment, and lived in that prison
for exactly 521 days till she was paroled till her 3-year sentence
was over. Now she lives in West Virginia, bringing up her child.
<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1192701/Why-hell-I-feel-sorry-says-girl-soldier-abused-Iraqi-prisoners-Abu-Ghraib-prison.html">Still
not repentant for the horrors she took part in</a>. And Graner? He
was sentenced to 10 years, but was released in August, 2011 after
serving only 6.5 years in a new prison building in Kansas meant for
515 prisoners in a quiet area spread over 51 acres where the bright
cells have doors and windows, but no bars. Both were dishonorably
discharged – forget the dishonor, discharge is what they probably
wanted and got, anyway.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">This is what an American soldier gets
for visiting unspeakable horrors on thousands of prisoners.
Definitely what the US soldier who went on a rampage yesterday in the
original war-on-terror theatre, Afghanistan, must have mulled as
infinitely preferable to the hell-hole that Afghanistan has become.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><b>Let us go fast forward over the other
horrors</b> – the peeing on bodies of dead Taliban fighters; the
killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers and several hundred civilians
through unmanned drone attacks; the random killing of defenceless
civilians including a Reuters cameraman in Baghdad by shooting
through Apache helicopter gun-sight; the shoot-the-messenger reaction
in charging Bradley Manning for leaking this evidence to WikiLeaks;
the desecration and burning of copies of the Koran; and so many
others – and come straight to yesterday's horror at Panjwai in rural Afghanistan. What happened? </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">An American on Afghan soil walks up in
the dead of night and shoots and kills 16 Afghan civilians
point-blank and coolly walks away. He is arrested – not by Afghan
police, but by the NATO forces! </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Now, being a US citizen, he will be
tried and brought to justice. In American. In American style. In a
closed military court, like England and Graner. In camera, and not
in a public trial. That too, many months or years after the public
has forgotten this horror. And then, the judgment of the military
court will be classified, and not released. And this soldier not
hanged, but sentenced to 10-15 years in a swank, comfortable prison,
if he is unlucky. And given a dishonorable discharge from the Armed
Forces. And paroled after a few years. So he can go back to his
family. And live happily or unhappily ever after. With only his
conscience to trouble him. If he has one, that is.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Obama consoles Karzai, and not the
people who are bereaved so suddenly; and senselessly. </span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Not a month ago, he ducked out of
sight and refuses to apologize for the Koran burnings. Directing the
NATO commander to do that instead. The same President who did not cringe from the cameras after the killing of Osama bin Laden on foreign soil, in flagrant violation of
sovereignty of a nation. Is that the face of a Nobel Peace Prize
winner that we see?</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">What about the US Government? Thanks to
its formidable spin doctors and the twin forces of powers to conceal
the truth and a well-oiled propaganda machine to project a lie as the
truth, and of course, a credulous population, it will still manage to
hold forth and pontificate against human rights abuses elsewhere in
the world. Like it managed to make their shameful retreat from a war
that they lost abjectly, secretly under cover of darkness, and then
look like a great achievement.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Now I think I begin to understand the
depth of loathing that Arabs have for Americans. Loathing not just
because of their despicable acts. But in large measure due to the
Americans' deep-seated hypocrisy.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">------------------</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>1</b> <b><i>Even
this is being disputed by documentaries like Fahrenheit 911 by
Michael Moore and Loose Change 9/11</i></b></span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-43959649575010399642012-02-16T15:55:00.002+05:302012-02-16T15:56:36.491+05:30India's Elections: What can Others Learn from Them?<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Today, we had municipal council
elections in Mumbai and Thane. I went out to the polling booth around
9 am, and was out by 9:10, after going through the process of
</span></div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">identifying myself (I showed my
passport, but a driving licence, election ID card, or a PAN card
(income-tax identification) would have done as well; and in later
elections, a vast number may vote on the strength of the Unique
biometric identification system that is being rolled out on a
massive scale)</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">getting the blob of indelible ink
on my fingers, so that I cannot vote more than once, and then
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">selecting two candidates - one
female and one male, for our municipal ward on an Electronic Voting
Machine (EVM).</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Some observations:</span></b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><i><b>First</b></i>, the process was
super-smooth.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><i><b>Second</b></i>, the counting is
such a smooth process that oncce the EVMs from all over the ward are
assembled in one place, the counting of votes and announcing of
results would take a shorter time than it took me to write this
piece.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><i><b>Third</b></i>,<i><b>
</b></i>there
would be no arguments about the count, even if the difference was in
single digits. A welcome change from the ridiculous farce that the
Florida count in George W's Presidential election against Al Gore
just over a decade ago, in the world's most powerful and tech-savvy
democracy. One day, India's super-efficient Election Commission (EC)
will probably become a profit centre - taking up outsourced election
management deals.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><i><b>Fourth</b></i>, the EVMs are a
wonder of hardiness and simplicity. Hi-tech, yet low-cost. Easy to
configure, easy to understand, they have proved themselves time and
again in hugely different climate zones, and have reduced the cost of
election management by an order of magnitude, with lesser challenges
to election results, and lesser effort and time for counting. EVMs
are equipped with software that is deceptively sophisticated - for
example, I have read somewhere that the EVM is configured so that at
least 15 seconds need to elapse before the next vote is registered
and announced by an audible long beep. This makes mass-voting by
goons a time-consuming task - if the 15-second limit is breached more
than twice in succession, the EVM locks itself up, and can only be
unlocked by empowered EC officers.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Lots to learn from India's conduct of
that great ritual of democracy, called elections, don't you think? </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-87510172807281622712011-12-21T21:33:00.000+05:302011-12-21T21:33:00.270+05:30Afghanistan: Strategic Options before the US<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In
my <a href="http://rajesh-haldipurs-blog.blogspot.com/2011/12/russias-strategic-geo-political-game.html">last blog entry</a>, I had outlined how Russia is playing a
high-stakes, long-term, strategic poker to regain its former
dominance and glory. Today, I examine a few history lessons relating
to war; and in the light of Russia's game, and also because of lack
of a coherent long term US foreign policy, now that US involvement in
Iraq and Libya has ended, I attempt to explain how America is
painting itself into a strategic corner, as far as the major
remaining theatre of war, Afghanistan, is concerned.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">History
has always shown that supply lines are at the root of war strategy.
If supply lines are closed, the army that has advanced becomes
isolated and vulnerable. For this same reason, access to sea ports
that make possible cheap logistics <i>via </i><span style="font-style: normal;">sea
have always been considered strategically important. Also, physical
features like lakes, seas, rivers and mountain ranges often form
national borders that act as natural fortifications or buffer zones.
</span>
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;">History
is replete with instances where supply lines, ports and geographic
features </span><span style="font-style: normal;">like narrow straits
that control access, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">have
played a big role. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">Control
of the narrow Strait of Istanbul (aka Bosphorus Strait), connecting
the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea has been the prize at stake in
more than one war (including WW-1's Battle of Gallipoli), as the Suez
Canal has been in the 1960s. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">A</span>t
Dunkirk in WW-2, breaking the isolation and seige was at the heart of
the evacuation by Allied forces. Again, the German army was repulsed
in Russia towards the end of WW-2 by the “scorched earth”
strategy–the retreating Russians left behind nothing that the enemy
could use–no buildings (burnt/ razed), no crops (burnt), and no
food or water (poisoned wells). The long, thin supply line was
constantly broken by Russian guerillas, and to make matters worse,
the winter of '41-42 was the severest in a long time. Soldiers froze
to death in their sleep; diesel froze in fuel tanks; there were
severe food shortages due to the scorched earth policy. This put such
a severe strain on the logistics of supporting an advancing army that
the Nazis eventually capitulated.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The
above references
to supply lines brings us to why Russia's strategic gameplan has
attained even more serious geo-political overtones: supply lines to
Afghanistan, an important theatre of war, where the US and NATO
forces are deeply involved, have become vulnerable. Pakistan, in
anger over killing of 24 of its soldiers at an Afghan border
checkpost, has closed two US supply lines to Afghanistan: <i>v</i><i>ia</i>
Torkham (Khyber Pass) in
the north, and <i>via
</i>Chaman in the south.
These were the cheapest and easiest supply lines, though
risky because of risks of ambushes to the convoys. A
few years back, to reduce dependence on the route through Pakistan,
the US developed the so-called Northern Distribution Network (NDN)
project. It was hoped
that the NDN would be less subject to armed attacks, delays, and
pilferage that have hampered movement of goods along the
Karachi-Peshawar route. In
setting up
the NDN,
the US must
have expended
considerable diplomatic
capital in nudging and
getting co-operation from several
CIS states involved, and
above all, from Russia.
An attempt
to get China and India
to partly fund
the NDN because
of potential
benefits
to their
economies
was a non-starter. This
eventually allowed
multiple alternative
supply lines to be
established, <i>albeit
</i>a bit costlier (about 250% of the Karachi-Peshawar route),
into Afghanistan from the North. Why
multiple? Because the sole customer of these routes was the US/NATO,
and having multiple options was thought to offer better bargaining
leverge to the US. But
as we will see in detail
below, each NDN route is an uneasy
option for the US,
especially after Pakistan has shut its doors to NATO and US.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoHTr0J21wyED-7g68ZPM-U2Q4KqtuijLGFd8ZZuDCOuilowFRnAXRembwN3KK_D5TNaeg8aalJ9b6Uey_vSjM6IImo29GLq4JawW0ruoVbm1lwXygwPX6QiAqjr-8BwnhubLnA/s1600/Karachi+Peshawar.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoHTr0J21wyED-7g68ZPM-U2Q4KqtuijLGFd8ZZuDCOuilowFRnAXRembwN3KK_D5TNaeg8aalJ9b6Uey_vSjM6IImo29GLq4JawW0ruoVbm1lwXygwPX6QiAqjr-8BwnhubLnA/s320/Karachi+Peshawar.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The
best route for NATO/ US forces to send supplies to Afghanistan is
the route from the Arabian Sea (Karachi, Pakistan) to Afghanistan
<i>via </i><span style="font-style: normal;">Peshawar, </span>Chaman
and Torkham on the Af-Pak border. This is short, relatively easily
motorable, and access to Pakistan <i>via </i>Arabian Sea is
relatively easy for the US and its allies, thanks to its military
bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
Even this route has
pushed the cost of gasoline from $3 per gallon in the US to $400 per
gallon delivered at the forward positions in Afghanistan. When
convoys are ambushed, the costs are said to go up to $800 per
gallon!</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiDpR1IMD_w34fktLZEp-pYouZTRT19eQk5WnTG-38XhJ6QUwIIy581gJudesNkiCgwBTe1avKosx3iSqnChHZZHIQukeVR2Jg-PQyzYHJUXgvzY_3-A8_nZbehyKozDCV-JvRKw/s1600/Riga+Route.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiDpR1IMD_w34fktLZEp-pYouZTRT19eQk5WnTG-38XhJ6QUwIIy581gJudesNkiCgwBTe1avKosx3iSqnChHZZHIQukeVR2Jg-PQyzYHJUXgvzY_3-A8_nZbehyKozDCV-JvRKw/s320/Riga+Route.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The
second route (called NDN North), is the next most viable route
(because a large portion uses Soviet-era railway lines), starts in
Riga, Latvia along the Baltic Sea, and goes through Russia,
Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan before entering Afghanistan. While
Latvia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan may sympathise with the US rather
than with Russia, it is of no avail, because Russia can shut that
route overnight. Moreover, Latvia is 100% dependent on Russia for
gas; and the other two have signed long term gas exploration and
supply treaties with Russia. Hence, if Russia is angered, this route
will close.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR0A0JyGiX2SCYy5-8sOAch0m7l-aOPiwKCx0FK47ffYpGBlnISfsvFmO1O70BmdFytJMqDoN4vTpMnOaJ5Xr8y2vVOOmqiiAkrbg45vL6s5qzh8u1XuIgd2h-J3b1jUHbHCjTiw/s1600/Poti+Baku.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR0A0JyGiX2SCYy5-8sOAch0m7l-aOPiwKCx0FK47ffYpGBlnISfsvFmO1O70BmdFytJMqDoN4vTpMnOaJ5Xr8y2vVOOmqiiAkrbg45vL6s5qzh8u1XuIgd2h-J3b1jUHbHCjTiw/s320/Poti+Baku.png" width="320" /></a></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The
third route (bypassing Russia, called NDN South) is from Poti,
Georgia, along the Black Sea <i>via </i>Baku, Azerbaijan, crossing
the Caspian Sea by ferries, to Aqtau in Kazakhstan and thereafter,
through Uzbekistan, on to Afghanistan. Turkmenistan is not yet an option as its Government has not granted overland transit permission for non-lethal supplies, but only for humanitarian aid supplies headed for Afghanistan. This
too is uncomfortable strategically, because Russia, if angered, can
easily block access to Poti, Georgia in a war-like scenario. It can
also lean on Kazakhstan and create trouble for its Government
through multiple levers (not discussed here). So this route too,
like the second route, is feasible only when Russia is in good
humour, though it bypasses Russia entirely. It is uncomfortable
logistically, because it means that consignments change over from
ship to road to ferries and back to road transport. <i>Plus</i>, it
goes through two CIS countries (Uzbekistan and
Azerbaijan) where the overhang of
Russian influence is still heavy. We cannot also ignore the
frequent water-sharing disputes between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
resulting in Uzbek blockades of traffic into Tajikistan lasting for
weeks on end, sometimes.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWqcjRJX2ymyYVkOfmc3960NiH7vpM7YxABZ7vPg68R8ZGg-G1KFuwR3MbctkjX6nhyt29j3FCHRV2ELqjiTpCgW9zJTNrQNGiOQcX_7keGLR9LPJXqumZjzB-oEAnOofjZ8bb3Q/s1600/KKT.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWqcjRJX2ymyYVkOfmc3960NiH7vpM7YxABZ7vPg68R8ZGg-G1KFuwR3MbctkjX6nhyt29j3FCHRV2ELqjiTpCgW9zJTNrQNGiOQcX_7keGLR9LPJXqumZjzB-oEAnOofjZ8bb3Q/s320/KKT.png" width="320" /></a></div>
</li>
</ul>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<ul><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">
<li><div style="font-style: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span style="color: black;">The
fourth route (called the KKT route), bypasses Georgia, Uzbekistan
and Azerbaijan but goes through Russia, ( :-) Russia keeps popping
up like a bad coin!), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. </span>
</div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
The
final route, and the most expensive, to be utilised only if other
routes are not sufficient, or in case of life and death, is by air
costing approximately $7 per pound of supplies – either over
Russian and multiple CIS countries' airspace from Europe over the
Black Sea or through Pakistani airspace. Now, any of these countries
could deny access to US supply airplanes. Cheapest would be over
Pakistani airspace, but this route is currently closed. The US's air
base in Manas, Kyrgyzstan is also subject to Russian influence. <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>
</div>
</li>
</span></ul>
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">So the conclusion is that the
US has very few options in Afghanistan, and a great deal of hope that
Pakistan will eventually
be prevailed upon to swallow
their anger against the US. Just
a few days after Pakistan closed US and NATO supply lines to
Afghanistan, Russia also threatened to close the NDN North
in partial retaliation of
the US's attempts to
place ballistic
missiles
in Poland and other
countries bordering Russia.
They have also threatened to place short range missiles in
Kaliningrad, aimed at specific targets in Europe. This is aimed at
the most vulnerable spot in the US's Afghan strategy, at the worst
possible time for the US.
It is thus clear that Russia is more than willing to use the NDN as
a diplomatic bargaining chip. Putin
has signalled this loud and clear by lowering the diplomatic temper
with the US several notches by accusing them of meddling in Russia's
internal politics, in the context of post-election anti-Putin
protests in Russia (some
papers have called this Russia's “Tahrir” moment).
If the US is actually
doing what Putin is alleging, they are playing dangerous, high-stakes
diplomatic poker. Russia, however, knows
that if Pakistan changes its mind, or if the US retreats from
Afghanistan, the NDN card
will no longer work.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">While it is some more time
before things turn dire, if Pakistan does not make a U-turn from its
current diplomatic position <i>vis-</i><i>à</i><i>-vis</i>
the US and NATO, the options before the US are basically two; and
both are “lame-duck” options that can diminish the US standing in
the world considerably:
</span><br />
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Eat
diplomatic crow dished out by Russia to keep the most viable NDN
routes open as long as they remain involved in Afghanistan; or
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Completely
retreat from Afghanistan well before the US Presidential election in
Dec, 2012, like they have done recently in Iraq under cover of
darkness and surprise. This is the most likely scenario. While the
Obama administration spin doctors may project it politically as a
decision to withdraw voluntarily (like they are projecting the Iraqi
withdrawal), this will actually be projected by Pakistan and the
Taliban, and seen and believed by much of the Arab/ Muslim world as
a humiliating forced retreat arising out of defeat.
</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Currently
no one in the US administration is talking about what happens if
Pakistan sticks to its guns long enough. Everyone is cynical enough
to believe that Pakistan will change its tune. But to understand the
probability of this happening, note that for the first time, in
Pakistan, the fundamentalists, the army and the politicians (even the
opposition) are on one side. It will take great courage for any of
these groupings to change their tune vis-a-vis the US radically.
Expecting this to happen in some time is the equivalent of running a
war and putting the lives of 140,000 armed forces personnel <i>plus
</i><span style="font-style: normal;">those of </span>countless
contract employees working in Afghanistan, to support the US and NATO
fight against the Taliban, at stake on the basis of blind hope and
faith, not hard-headed strategy and tactics. Putin's recent
uncharacteristically belligerent diatribe against Hillary Clinton,
John McCain and the US's meddling in internal politics of Russia
(meaning the protests about the recent elections being unfair etc.)
is as clear an indication as any that Russia is gearing up to extract
a heavy diplomatic and political price from the US for keeping the
NDN open. Come winter, and Russia dons its hardest negotiating hat in
Ukraine; now they will do it with the US too. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.55cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">(Maps are from Google Earth (TM))</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-89592108985076902552011-12-20T20:26:00.000+05:302011-12-21T09:40:36.599+05:30Russia's Strategic Geo-Political Game<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Russia,
after the break-up of USSR into 15 CIS countries, has been reduced to
a country with long, flat borders that are difficult to patrol and
defend, with most of its neighbouring CIS countries, and precious
little access to the sea except to the icy Barents and Kara Seas.;
and through Kaliningrad, an outpost cut off from the contiguous land
mass of the rest of Russia, to the Baltic Sea. Russia also has a
narrow window to the Black Sea southwest of Volgograd.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Commercially,
it has much of Europe by the short hairs, because of its stranglehold
over supply of natural gas. At least 18 CIS and European countries
are between 25% and 100% dependent on Russian natural gas, and have
almost fully converted to gas for internal heating. So, every winter
since 2005, when large parts of Europe are difficult to live in
without gas heating, Russia turns on the diplomatic pressure using
Ukraine (through which its gas pipeline passes) as the whipping boy.
Over the last 6 years, Russia has played hardball and negotiated hard
with Ukraine. This year's negotiations may begin any time now. </span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Russia
under Vladimir Putin (and now Medvedev with Putin breathing down his
neck) has been playing a very smart and patient strategic game for
the last over 15 years, where it
uses all its strategic advantages to gain and extend its power and
influence. In particular, it is <span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-style: normal;">keen
on expanding till it gets access to a natural bulwark against
invasion, in the form of sea, river, lake or mountain range; </span></span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-style: normal;">and
rebuild Russia to its former glory</span></span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-style: normal;">.
</span></span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-style: normal;">This
intent is borne out </span></span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-style: normal;">by
Putin's recent regret that leaders of the erstwhile USSR did not
fight to prevent its collapse. In 2005, he had described the
described the demise of the USSR as the "greatest geopolitical
catastrophe" of the 20</span></span><span style="color: #222222;"><sup><span style="font-style: normal;">th</span></sup></span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-style: normal;">
century. </span></span>For
example,
</span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfSFsxI71bY9AfSM-yk_1-8QM-OgzDoiBxSyJ9WBRtwuW2nUteDgRix45EN-orI2gN825Fubtw5pa3ZVwjM9_VjX2C8fnHhw8HnqXlZ7k1gBDLvrlqGpLJb4dexVcYCT3DeURwLA/s1600/Map+CIS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfSFsxI71bY9AfSM-yk_1-8QM-OgzDoiBxSyJ9WBRtwuW2nUteDgRix45EN-orI2gN825Fubtw5pa3ZVwjM9_VjX2C8fnHhw8HnqXlZ7k1gBDLvrlqGpLJb4dexVcYCT3DeURwLA/s640/Map+CIS.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">CIS Countries Map taken from Google Maps.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm; text-align: left;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Russian
troops have
recently (in April,
2010), ostensibly at the
invitation of the Kyrgyzstan
Government, bivouacked
in Kyrghyzstan,
thus making Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the three CIS
countries bordering that tiny, poor country, very uncomfortable.
Kyrgyzstan is mostly
mountains and highlands, giving this country strategic vantage
points to peer into their neighbours' backyards.</span></div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">At
the south-east, Russian troops can look down from the<i> </i><i>Tien
Shan </i>mountains almost
into Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">At
the north, from Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, if you shout,
you can be heard in Kazakhstan. Indeed, Almaty, the largest town
in, and the
former capital of,
Kazakhstan, with 9% of
this thinly populated country's population, is less than 250 kms
away. I had <a href="http://rajesh-haldipurs-blog.blogspot.com/2010/04/what-is-russia-up-to.html">predicted
in this blog </a>in April, 2010, that there will be trouble in
Kazakhstan in the next 2-3 years, covertly fomented by Russia. This
seems to have begun, if <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-12/20/content_14291109.htm">this
report</a> is to be believed. A
state of emergency is
currently in force, and
curfew imposed, in an oil-producing town. Kazakhstan is an
important exporter of crude, and interruption of supplies are a
possibility, leading to upward pressure on global oil prices.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The
third country, Tajikistan, large
parts of which are mountainous and inhospitable,
borders Afghanistan, a geo-politically important state. Besides,
Tajikistan is currently locked in a dispute with Uzbekistan about
sharing of waters of a river which is being dammed in Tajikistan.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Kyrgyzstan
also has a long border on the east with China, and
from the mountains there, you can peer into China's Uighur (muslim)
province, which Al Qaeda cells have reportedly infiltrated.
Further, the US has an
air base called Manas in Kyrgyzstan which is a supply line to
Afghanistan. Since the new Kyrgyzstan Government owes its
existence and continuance in power to Russia. This air supply base for US operations in Afghanistan is in danger, if Russia is angered by US foreign policy.</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Kaliningrad
gives Russia a shared border with Lithuania and Poland, and easy
access to North Europe. As Lithuania is 100% dependent on Russia for
its natural gas, like Latvia and Estonia, Lithuania has not much
choice but to allow Russia land and airspace access to Kaliningrad,
which is at the forefront of Russia's objection to US missile bases
in CIS countries or other East European economies: Russia threatens
retaliatory placement of nuclear warheads and missiles in
Kaliningrad, virtually on the doorsteps of several Europe-facing CIS
countries and all major EU countries. Thus, being NATO
member-countries is a cold relief for Lativa, Lithuania and Estonia.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Russia's
friendship with Venezuela and Bolivia through Chavez and Pablo
Morales respectively raises the spectre of a “gas-OPEC” which
can control gas pricing and distribution throughout the world. Even
Iran and Kazakhstan have explicitly supported such an idea.
Simultaneously, by offering sweeteners to Iran to lay a new pipeline
for gas to Europe through its territories, it is moving forward to
make Europe even more dependent on Russia for gas, far into the
future. Note that Bolivia, Venezuela, Iran and Russia together
account for 45% of proven gas reserves in the world. Add
Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with whom Russia has signed
long term exploration and supply agreements for gas (<i>read</i>:
buys all its present and future gas output), and this figure crosses
50%. Throw in Equatorial Guinea, Trinidad and Tobago, Algeria,
Argentina, Brunei, Nigeria, Oman and Qatar, all of whom are members
of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) of which a Russian is
the Secretary General, and this formidable multilateral group
controls more of the gas production and reserves of the world than
OPEC did for oil. Besides, international companies have by now been
pushed out of Russia, more or less, and Russian oil and gas is now
consolidated in, and controlled by state-owned entities.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Russia,
along with 5 or 6 other UN member countries, notably including
Venezuela, headed by Hugo Chavez, a known US-baiter, has recognized
two breakaway provinces of Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) as
separate countries in 2008. Russia has set up military presence in
both these provinces, cocking a snook at the US and Europe, by
drawing parallels to what they did by recognizing Kosovo earlier the
same year over the objections of Russia. Thus, it breathes down the
neck of the Georgian leadership, with South Ossetia being within
shouting distance of Tbilisi, the capital. Abkhazia gives Russia
much broader Black Sea coastline access, and cuts Georgia's access
to it by half. When Georgia appealed for help, Europe did not budge
because of its fear of angering Russia that supplies so much of
Europe's natural gas. The US could not even think of coming to
Georgia's rescue in these two theatres – because Russia patrolled
access to Georgia <i>via </i>the Black Sea, and absent reliable
supply lines, other than diplomatic support, it could do little
else.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0.28cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Russia
is so huge that it is easy to forget that in the south-east,
Vladivostok, the last stop on the Great Trans-Siberian Railway at
Russia's south-east tip, is very near the northern tip of North
Korea, US's great bugbear. With the death of Kim-Jong Il, this
geographic proximity has potential to invite international interest.
I won't be surprised that with a young, untested leader in the
saddle in N Korea holding a nuclear button, Russia and China attempt
get friendly with N Korea. Revival of old proposals like a train
from Russia through N Korea and onwards to S Korea; an oil pipeline
through a similar route; and so on can be expected. In the north,
the eastern-most point of Asia, that is almost permanently
ice-bound, the Bering Strait separates US territory (Diomedes
Islands, Alaska) from Russian by less than 50 kms, though a day
apart on the calendar. (You may be able to spot Sarah Palin's
kitchen from this part of Russia!) It is possible to ski across a
frozen Bering Strait from Russia to the US (or <i>vice versa</i><span style="font-style: normal;">)
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">at</span> this point (skiing
to yesterday or tomorrow!). A time will soon come when Russia will
begin to leverage these geographical quirks too. </span>
</div>
</li>
</ul><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-70766725866478942902011-12-19T20:19:00.000+05:302011-12-19T20:19:00.367+05:30Has the US financial system thrown all caution to the winds?<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">I occasionally look at the <a href="http://usdebtclock.org/">US
Debt Clock</a>, and record my impressions on this blog. The biggest
figure by far on this page, full of mind-bogglingly high figures, is
the figure of currency and credit derivatives to which the US economy
is exposed. The US financial system is becoming bolder – in the
last 6 months, it seems that they have completely thrown caution to
the winds, knowing that the rest of the developed world have little
choice but to sink or swim with them.</span></div>
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><b>Currency & Credit
Derivatives Exposure of the US economy:</b></span></div>
<dl>
<dl>
<dl>
<dl>
<dd>
<table cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0">
<colgroup><col width="85*"></col>
<col width="114*"></col>
<col width="57*"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: 1px solid #000000; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0.1cm;" width="33%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">8 April, 2010</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: 1px solid #000000; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0.1cm;" width="44%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">$648.975 Trillion</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border: 1px solid #000000; padding: 0.1cm;" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">See <a href="http://rajesh-haldipurs-blog.blogspot.com/2010/04/some-scary-financial-statistics-about.html">this</a></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="33%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">26 Jul, 2011</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="44%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">$611.499 Trillion
</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">See <a href="http://rajesh-haldipurs-blog.blogspot.com/2011/07/some-scary-statistics-about-us.html">this</a></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="TOP">
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="33%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">19 Dec, 2011</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: none; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="44%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"> $766.628 Trillion</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: none; padding-bottom: 0.1cm; padding-left: 0.1cm; padding-right: 0.1cm; padding-top: 0cm;" width="22%">
<div align="CENTER">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">See <a href="http://usdebtclock.org/">this</a></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</dd></dl>
</dl>
</dl>
</dl>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">From April to July, 2011, there seemed
to be a 5% winding down (see <a href="http://rajesh-haldipurs-blog.blogspot.com/2011/07/some-scary-statistics-about-us.html">this</a>).
However, since then, the exposure has shot up in the last 5 months to
an unprecedented level. To put the current figure in context,
currency and credit derivatives exposures have risen by $155 Trillion
in 5 months – whereas the US GDP is $15 Trillion. The rise in this
figure in only 5 months is <b>10 times the current GDP of the US</b>
economy; and <b>2-</b><b>½
times the world GDP of $63.04 Trillion </b>(World
Bank figures, quoted on Wikipedia. See <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)">this</a>).</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Keep in mind that a large part of such
exposures represent postponement of recognition of losses. This shows
that the US economy continues to think that the rest of the world is
a limitless risk sink; many ecnomists thought that the world had been
cured of this naive belief. Stupidity is alive and kicking in the
financial system!
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-23255651960485648302011-12-12T13:16:00.002+05:302011-12-12T13:21:21.114+05:30The Passing of a Generation<br />
<div style="margin-top: 0.42cm; page-break-after: avoid; text-align: left;">
My grand-uncle (paternal grandfather's
brother) passed away at 2:10 am today morning. Since I am myself
almost 50, this isn't at all surprising. Yet, it is a passing away
to grieve about. He has been the <i>pater familias</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
for longer than I have lived. As the 9</span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;">th</span></sup><span style="font-style: normal;">
of 10 children (7 brothers and 3 sisters), he was the last
torch-bearer of his generation. His passing marks a passing of baton
acrosss generations in the family. All his siblings have lived up to
ripe ages, 65 upwards. Even in this family, this grand-uncle was
unusually long-lived – he was 101 years, 5 months and 19 days when
he passed away. The only one in his family to come anywhere close
was his mother, my great-grandmother, who passed away at 99.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Longevity,
continued good health and sharp mental acuity even at age 101 were
remarkable aspect</span><span style="font-style: normal;">s</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
of his life; but more remarkable was the fact that he lived life in
exemplary fashion. He was well-off by the standards of his time; but
never really rich, but yet, he commanded a “following” among his
friends and family that could not be explained fully. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">His
house has been an open house for the extended family for well over 5
decades. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">I have always felt
closer to him than any of my other grand-uncles, because I lost my
grandfather when I was 6 years old; I remember seeing him only about
twice or thrice. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">I
remember hazily his recounting of his experience in the 1944 Mumbai
docks blast, where a ship berthed in Bombay (as it was then known)
Harbour blew up – I recall his telling me (along with a few of my
wide-eyed cousins) that one of his office colleagues had a huge bar
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">of pure gold </span><span style="font-style: normal;">land
with an almighty thud in his </span><span style="font-style: normal;">living
room </span><span style="font-style: normal;">balcony, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">a
few kilometres away from the docks.</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
That story was quite riveting – almost like a</span><span style="font-style: normal;">n
eye-</span><span style="font-style: normal;">witness account. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">I
must have been, perhaps, 5 or 6 years old at the time. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">I
later read a story in an old Readers' Digest magazine issue about
that incident that lent great credence to that story. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">On
second thoughts, I can say that RD became more credible in my mind
because of this article, rather than the other way around. So strong
was his influence on my mind. A few years later, RD thereafter really
shaped my eclectic reading interests – I became addicted to reading
and would read no less than 15-20 issues of the magazine every three
months (by picking up old copies from </span><i>raddiwalas</i><span style="font-style: normal;">)
for several years. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">The only
other relative who shaped my reading habits was my late uncle,
Chaitanya D Haldipur. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Among
my earliest memories were attending </span><span style="font-style: normal;">my
grand-uncle's </span><span style="font-style: normal;">60</span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;">th</span></sup><span style="font-style: normal;">
birthday celebrations, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">in
1970</span><span style="font-style: normal;">. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">We
went by BEST Bus No.85 from Shivaji Park (a 1</span><span style="font-style: normal;">2</span><span style="font-style: normal;">-1</span><span style="font-style: normal;">5</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
minute walk from our home, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">then</span><span style="font-style: normal;">)
to Tardeo, where it stopped just by the gate of the building where he
stayed. There were so many people that I was a happily anonymous
8-year old having the run of their vast (so it seemed to my eyes
then) apartment that day. I had a close look at a bouquet of 60 red
roses sent by his office colleagues (he must have retired from
service that day </span><span style="font-style: normal;">(I</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
now guess) in a wicker basket, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">covered
with crinkling cellophane</span><span style="font-style: normal;"> –</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
probably the first time I had seen a bouquet</span><span style="font-style: normal;">.
</span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">For a
f</span><span style="font-style: normal;">e</span><span style="font-style: normal;">w
decades, he did a great deal of social work </span><span style="font-style: normal;">in
our community</span><span style="font-style: normal;">, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">and
I gathered that he was as liked as he was disliked, for his
forthright views and actions, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">though
I was never very aware of what he did. All I know is that for a few
years, he was the full-time Manager of our community's </span><i>Math</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
at Shirali in Karnataka State, where he was credited with quite a lot
of reforms, that resulted in the </span><i>Math</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
becoming financially self-sustained and less dependent on donations
from the community. After that, I gathered that he was one of the
founder-trustees of the Shree Trust, which set up a </span><i>Math</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
in Karla, between Mumbai and Pune. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">My
grand-uncle was headstrong, but managed a remarkable partnership of
marriage that lasted exactly 75 years, with my my grand-aunt, who
passed away just 6 months ago. As long as she was alive, he
complained and chafed because his immediate family would not allow
him to go out of the home by himself. Read this in the context of the
fact that he had won a WIAA safe driving award many decades ago, and
till he was past 92, he drove himself around in the Mumbai traffic.
For this, he became some kind of a hero in the eyes of the extended
family and his friends and well-wishers, but his immediate family
would be on tenterhooks whenever he made off with the car riding over
every objection raised by them. The family eventually </span><span style="font-style: normal;">decided
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">to end these “escapades”
by selling off the car. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">All
this time, he looked perhaps 20 years younger than he actually was! </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Indeed,
an anecdote is shared by many in our family circles about one of his
visits to Shirali, when he was around 85. He travelled alone by bus
to Bhatkal (the nearest town where the bus stopped), where a car was
to pick him up. The car driver was told to look out for an
85-year-old man travelling alone, and instructed to take special care
of him. Atma</span><i>Bappa</i><span style="font-style: normal;"> got
down from the bus, not looking much over 60 at that time. He could not
see any car or placard-waving driver waiting for him, so after
waiting a few minutes, he took a taxi and went to Shirali on his own,
while the driver waited in vain, looking out for a frail-looking
85-year-old ! </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">When
he was 100, when I once visited him, he was spiritedly holding forth
when suddenly, in the middle of a sentence, he asked me, “</span><i>Where
is Revati</i><span style="font-style: normal;">?” Only when I
assured him that she was in the bedroom, talking to my wife, did he
continue. It was a remarkable bond. He was </span><span style="font-style: normal;">physically
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">fitter than she was,
throughout their life together. Revati</span><i>pachhi</i><span style="font-style: normal;">,
as I called her (meaning Aunt Revati in Konkani, my mother-tongue)
was the complete opposite – she was cool </span><span style="font-style: normal;">and
frail; </span><span style="font-style: normal;">Atma</span><i>Bappa</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
(Uncle Atma) </span><span style="font-style: normal;">was </span><span style="font-style: normal;">mercurial,
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">oozing health and </span><span style="font-style: normal;">energ</span><span style="font-style: normal;">y.
</span><span style="font-style: normal;"> </span><span style="font-style: normal;">She
was about 5 ft tall; he was almost 6 ft tall. She could barely be
heard; his resonant baritone voice boomed across three thick walls of
his home for over 50 years. They became the longest living couple in
India as reckoned by sum total of their ages (using dates of birth as
recorded in their passports). I like to think that they both lived so
long because they both did not want to be the first among them to
die, leaving the other alone. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">While
he stayed independent till the very end, he appreciated the lifetime
of dedication of his daughter-in-law, Rekha, to her family. Rekha has
been the one strong, steady feature in their domesitc life. At one
time, there were four residents in that home, and three of them were
unable to walk without support. Rekha took care of their every need
selflessly. On his 99</span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;">th</span></sup><span style="font-style: normal;">
Birthday, he announced to me in Rekha's presence that from now on,
Rekha is the Boss of the House. He then told me </span><i>sotto voce</i><span style="font-style: normal;">,
that he was only saying it now, but that has been the case for quite
a few years already! </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">When
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">Revati</span><i>pachhi</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">passed away </span><span style="font-style: normal;">6
months ago</span><span style="font-style: normal;">, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">something
was snuffed out of Atma</span><i>Bappa</i><span style="font-style: normal;">'s
life. While earlier, he was impatient with everyone because they
restricted him and did not allow him to go around without a walker
(which he was forced to use after a hip bone fracture when he was
99), now he </span><span style="font-style: normal;">had </span><span style="font-style: normal;">f</span><span style="font-style: normal;">a</span><span style="font-style: normal;">ll</span><span style="font-style: normal;">en</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
silent. The last time I met him while he was up and about, which was
probably a month ago, for the first time </span><span style="font-style: normal;">in
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">my memory</span><span style="font-style: normal;">,
he </span><span style="font-style: normal;">almost </span><span style="font-style: normal;">looked
his age. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">He seemed lost, as
if in some distant thought</span><span style="font-style: normal;">s</span><span style="font-style: normal;">.
It now took him 1</span><span style="font-style: normal;">2-15</span><span style="font-style: normal;">
minutes to walk in tiny steps </span><span style="font-style: normal;">using
a walker, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">from </span><span style="font-style: normal;">the
living room </span><i>divan </i><span style="font-style: normal;">to
the dining table. But </span><span style="font-style: normal;">yet, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">he
refused to be touched or assisted by anyone. He insisted on walking
on his own, his streak of independence undulled by </span><span style="font-style: normal;">the
ravages of T</span><span style="font-style: normal;">ime. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">His
101</span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;">st</span></sup><span style="font-style: normal;">
birthday (just a month after his wife passed away) was a quiet,
normal day, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">in June this
year</span><span style="font-style: normal;">. I went to greet him. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">I
touched his feet, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">and no
sooner had I said, </span><span style="font-style: normal;">M</span><span style="font-style: normal;">any
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">H</span><span style="font-style: normal;">appy
Returns, he said in his usual stentorian tone, “No! Don't say
</span><i>Returns</i><span style="font-style: normal;">! I don't want
to see another Birthday!”. </span><span style="font-style: normal;">I
returned home with a </span><span style="font-style: normal;">slight
</span><span style="font-style: normal;">feeling of despondency. At
99, he refused to undergo cataract surgery in one eye, saying,”What
do I need better eyesight for? What will I see?” That seemed like
his usual pragmatic self. But this was different – I had seen a
person waiting to die. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">The
end came, for all practical purposes, about 2 weeks ago, when he got
up to walk when nobody was around him, for a few seconds, and fell to
the ground, with his head hitting the ground hard. The resultant
blood clot and brain swelling pushed him into a coma, from which he
never really came out. Doctors were amazed to see that his vital
parameters were all perfect till the very end. They actually expected
him to emerge from his comatose state soon. But that was not to be.
After 2 weeks in the hospital, they brought him home. His wife had
insisted that she not be admitted to a hospital, because she wanted
to die at home. He probably wanted the same – because, within 24
hours of his returning home, he breathed his last. </span>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Atmaram
Ganpatrao Haldipur, RIP.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-91153618966675166702011-11-25T21:07:00.000+05:302011-12-09T19:13:51.556+05:30India is not the only country with problems!<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">I recently visited two countries in Europe - United Kingdom and Switzerland. While in Switzerland, we did all the touristy things, but in the UK, we were guests - our hosts were delightful company throughout, with very well brought-up and articulate children, with sharp minds of their own. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">My host, Sanjay and I took a brief day trip to Brighton. He informed me that Brighton was the gay capital of the UK, so just the two of us walking down the main street of this town would not raise any eyebrows, "even if we held hands", he added, tongue firmly in cheek! </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">We saw some "homeless" persons - who were dressed in jeans, shirts and a cap, fairly well dressed, I thought, by Indian standards, but were kneeling on the pavement and begging for alms. What surprised me was that they were selling a magazine that is supposedly brought out by the homeless in Brighton and nearby areas, in which the advertisements and cover price go to fund some of the homeless. Sanjay told me that the homeless are not necessarily the dregs of society - indeed, he pointed out that in his office, there was one employee who was officially "homeless" - after a messy divorce, he had to leave the marital home, and he defaulted on credit card debt because of the alimony burden. It seems that homeless is a misnomer - they are entitled to, and get dormitory-style accommodation (in some cases, heated!). </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In a country that counts itself as one of the richest, this was a glimpse of what they called poverty. Definitely, this was relative poverty, and not the grinding, Rs.32 per day consumption level kind of poverty we encounter in India. While there, I read in the newspapers how many people entitled under the UK laws to accommodation based on their family size would be registered for these benefits in the UK as well as in some other rich socialist country like Norway. They enjoy homes in both countries; and either use one as their vacation home, or surreptitiously rent out the house to other immigrants who have difficulty proving that their stay in the UK was legitimate. Many such persons are employed in so-called "Indian" restaurants, which are actually Bangladeshi or Pakistani owned and operated. This is corruption India-style; the equivalent of our CGS quarters that are supposedly allotted to Central Government employees at various levels. Many of them have their own homes, and prefer to "rent out" or illegally sublet the premises allocated to them, enjoying income that escapes the tax net altogether.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">I now understood that the UK had its share of problems. And these problems were being exacerbated by many of the home mortgages that had slowly slid "underwater" in recent years. I was so surprised at evidence of homelessness in such a cold country that I did not capture it on camera. </span><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8eU1RmoM-KFIGElQbojBBlQY5N40HwQGy2jLj2ILR0NXteshb11k6r6SnvJET2ohFIvYyx9vzGY2gBvCYxZzFHaZNW4_VB9CW3aPkkHeGRXRrA2MHKglCOWlIpGYc59AOtiI8aA/s1600/Graffitti+Switzerland.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8eU1RmoM-KFIGElQbojBBlQY5N40HwQGy2jLj2ILR0NXteshb11k6r6SnvJET2ohFIvYyx9vzGY2gBvCYxZzFHaZNW4_VB9CW3aPkkHeGRXRrA2MHKglCOWlIpGYc59AOtiI8aA/s320/Graffitti+Switzerland.png" width="320" /></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Then, in Switzerland, everything was almost picture-postcard-perfect. So beautiful, in fact, that we tired of clicking photographs of the landscapes everywhere.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Except for the fact that the Swiss haven't been able to rein in their rebellious graffitti artists who spray-painted and defaced public property almost everywhere. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In a few places, we found that the authorities had spray-painted in white over this graffitti, but it still left the wall looking shabby.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXD2WfBTxCFLm-eNaUYPgicoUnGFCQkzwy6QP42w7jlAIX0449GsaWlEfQBZniGSHvK9-tc7sGJuC2i2FRoZimxeuFdOtx4v_BCvMoOT6Kf6ceD-zsuq9fDp0ElWbSCu-SwKLfAQ/s1600/Homeless+Switzerland.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXD2WfBTxCFLm-eNaUYPgicoUnGFCQkzwy6QP42w7jlAIX0449GsaWlEfQBZniGSHvK9-tc7sGJuC2i2FRoZimxeuFdOtx4v_BCvMoOT6Kf6ceD-zsuq9fDp0ElWbSCu-SwKLfAQ/s320/Homeless+Switzerland.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">I thought to myself, at least Switzerland seems to be wealthy enough to have homes for all their people. Then, I was proved wrong. I came across a "homeless body", or a "hobo" as they are often derogatorily referred to. Except that this guy looked like he must have starred in a Wild West movie. He carried his luggage around everywhere, and sat (and probably also slept) on bus terminal benches when he tired of walking around. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">This photograph was taken in a town called Bulle, in a bus terminal when we were returning from Nestle's Cailler chocolate factory in Broc. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">As I returned to India, I thought of when our country will reach a level where poverty and disrespect for public property is reduced to a level that one has to take photographs to record evidence that it exists. I knew it would be decades before it happened, but I am hopeful of good things happening. </span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">I am proud of the fact that we Indians have come to accept the reliability of Electronic Voting Machines, something that even the US and the UK have yet to adopt. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">I have especially great confidence in the UID initiative being led by Nandan Nilekani - it will become the largest biometric identification database in the world very soon, if it hasn't already become. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">India's banking industry is the strongest in the world today, and I can withdraw money from my account <i>free of charge from</i> <i>any ATM or branch of any bank </i>- something that even the developed world cannot boast of. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Some time back, I had blogged on the wonderful experience I had in replacing my lost passport. I am sure this is an experience that thousands like me have had. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Besides, the reduction in corruption that may result from a strong Jan Lokpal bill and an increasing pride that Indians will have in their country, that will lead them to eventually banish the scourge of absolute poverty.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"> </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">This very pride will also ensure that public property is well maintained. Have you noticed that the speakers and LCD televisions in Mumbai's new local trains have survived for well over a year without being stolen or damaged? </span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">We are learning, I dare hope, to preserve public property. India is on the move, not-withstanding the troubles that seem to be filling the papers nowadays. </span><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-47716222017978017012011-11-12T09:17:00.001+05:302011-11-12T09:53:44.296+05:30Hit by Randomness<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Being very logical and conservative, I believed completely in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's idea that events with very high impact but very, very low probability occur far more often than one thinks probable. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The accuracy of this belief came home to me yesterday evening quite forcefully. For a few days, the normally diligent maid who comes in to clean my office did not turn up. Phone calls to her mobile number remained unanswered. A slight concern remained at the back of my mind, but I did nothing about it. This maid, who has been with me two years would even phone in to say she'd be late. I ascribed it to the fact that she leads a very challenging and exhausting life, and may be unwell. She lives in rental accommodation with her mother and her son, who is doing very well in school (as a single mother, she is justifiably proud of that). She is still fighting in Court for maintenance against her husband who has abandoned them both. She works in a few places doing cleaning work from around 6:30 am, and then works in a company in Crawford Market till 8:30 pm and returns home close to 10 pm. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Then, yesterday I heard from her brother, who lives nearby but separately. She had met with a </span><a href="http://www.mumbaimirror.com/index.aspx?page=article&sectid=2&contentid=201111082011110802530877b3dddf67" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">freak accident</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"> that has changed her life completely. An act of random irresponsibility leading to a devastating black swan impact on this hard-working lady. Hit by randomness, as Taleb would put it. Bad luck, as most Indians would. Either way, it is entirely senseless and inexplicable. </span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">It will be some time before she can pick up the threads of her life. Her brother's intention was to ask if I would be good enough to wait for her to get well enough and come back to her job. I assured him that I would wait. She has taken a rain check on my offer for financial help. Need to go and meet her - will do that tomorrow. </span><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-61039155822346050092011-11-06T11:19:00.001+05:302011-11-06T11:22:57.747+05:30Is the West afraid of democracy?<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In recent times, governments in both,
the US and Europe have shown that this could indeed be true!
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">We now look at a few examples in recent
years, of the West running scared of true democracy.</span></div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Hamas was democratically elected
as the governing party in a free and fair election which the US
itself had approved of holding. Since that victory, neither Israel
nor the US have recognized the Hamas government as a legitimately
elected government in Gaza and the West Bank. All its talk of
exporting democracy to justify ousting despots has been shown to be
hollow and self-serving.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The US also took an inordinately
long time before ditching its long-time ally Hosni Mubarak, and throwing their lot with a spontaneous non-violent democratic uprising in Egypt.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The current move to scuttle
Palestine's application to be recognized as a country and admitted
to full membership of the UN via a US veto in the Security Council
is another example of the US running scared of democracy in action. The vote in UNESCO, where the US has no veto, shows what would happen if true democracy were allowed to prevail. 107 countries voted for admitting Palestine as a member of UNESCO while 14 countries (basically the US, Israel and like-minded countries) voted against.</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Poland, Czechoslovakia, among
several countries, wanted a referendum (the most democratic method,
where every citizen can participate in the decision) to decide on
the Lisbon Treaty (proposing constitutional change in the EU).
However, they were all prevailed upon to not hold the referendum;
instead, elected representatives alone ratified it.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Ireland, however, held a
referendum and the proposal to join the EU was defeated. A year
later, another referendum was forced to be held in Ireland on the
same question when enough votes swung in favour of the Lisbon
Treaty. That decision was hailed as a resounding endorsement of the
Lisbon Treaty. This is a new kind of democracy where you repeatedly
ask the same question, till you get the answer you want.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">The most recent case is when the
Greek PM, George Papandreou proposed that the rescue package cobbled
together by Germany and a few other EU countries be voted on by the
people of Greece (referendum). It had the effect of a hungry cat
among a flock of alarmed pigeons. <i><b>Why should the prospects of a
Greek referendum trouble the richer countries?
</b></i></span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Because Greece as a country is any
way in a soup, whether they agree to the rescue package, or don't.
It is has a choice of entering 8-ft deep water, or 25-ft deep water. <b>The
real rescue package is not for Greece, but for the banks in the
developed countries that are holding Greek government bonds that
have fallen steeply in value</b>. For them, it s the difference between
accessing EU's rescue funds to rescue them from the fallout of poor
investment decisions and not getting that access, and bearing the
entire loss themselves. With the backdrop of Occupy Wall Street
campaign, and the widespread anger against bankers, a referendum
would almost certainly return a resounding “NO” to the EU
package.
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">So it is not a surprise that
Papandreou was prevailed upon to abandon his idea of a referendum.
It continues the long saga of the democracies fearing democracy.</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-32770424770839167572011-11-03T19:34:00.000+05:302011-11-03T19:34:00.663+05:30Mother Teresa of Somalia<div style="margin-bottom: 1cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Picture this: Somalia: the
longest-running failed state, a country at war with itself for over a
decade. Now picture this: Dr Hawa Abdi, a lady, a gynecologist,
imbued with a spirit of service that has made her daughters into
converts to her cause. She and her two daughters now run what has
grown from a single room to a 400-bed hospital. These bed are always
full, but in the hospital campus stay 90,000 displaced people who
also need medical help or a shelter from the violence and madness
outside the camp. Her hospital has become one of Somalia's largest
relief camps.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">In May, 2010, she was abducted and held
at gunpoint for being a woman and running the camp, but the womenfolk
in the camp nearly 75,000 are women or children) – through sheer
numbers, and aided by a flood of approbation from the world over,
they forced Dr Abdi's release. Dr Abdi, however, was made of sterner
stuff – she insisted that the leader of those who abducted her
apologise in writing for her abduction and vandalisation of the
hospital.
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Currently, Somalians are reeling under
a famine, and all she can provide is drinking water, and a rent-free
place to stay. While the majority of those in the camp are women and
children, men are allowed to stay with two conditions (the first
applies to all in the camp):
</span></div>
<ul>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 1cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">those staying in the camp do not
talk about family or clan (the reason why Somalia is so deeply
divided), and
</span></div>
</li>
<li><div style="margin-bottom: 1cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">they do not beat their wives. Any
wife-beater is locked up in an empty storeroom.
</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="margin-bottom: 1cm;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Just 5 doctors (including Dr Abdi and
her two daughters) and 16 nurses at the camp conduct 20 surgeries
every day and treat 300-400 patients every single day, seven days a
week; AND manage the camp. Truly deserving candidate for the Nobel
Prize. Hope that she is nominated soon – the prize money will help
<a href="http://www.dhaf.org/">her foundation</a> and Somalia
greatly. </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-41741558630736869632011-10-20T21:04:00.000+05:302011-10-20T21:04:00.646+05:30Is China a currency manipulator?<span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Once upon a time, there were two countries, one named the <b>US of A</b> and the other named <b>China</b>. US of A bought Chinese goods cheaply for several years, by simply printing more of their money. China scrounged and worked hard, to be able to provide acceptable quality at very, very cheap dollar prices. US of A benefited hugely from a low priced yuan - it gave them more goods and value per dollar of spending. In the meanwhile, China saved, and saved, and saved. In US of A's dollars. So the US of A was the grasshopper that danced all summer, and China was the ant that saved up for the winter, from Aesop's fable.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">China's thriftiness allowed the US of A to spend in excess of their incomes, and not bear the consequences, because, by buying up US of A's treasury bonds, China in effect sequestered the extra dollars printed in the US of A that could have led to inflation at home.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Now, US of A finds that they have reached the limit of deficit financing, and its cupboards are as empty as Old Mother Hubbard's was. They have suddenly realised that they have to repay all the Treasury Bonds that China has accumulated. They want to pay back the debts after China has appreciated the yuan, so that they will pay less dollars to pay off their debts. So they decide that China has to allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">But China now has new-found confidence - the confidence of the rich ant, with a granary replete and bulging on all sides with dollar debts issued by the US of A. So it looks the US of A in the eye and says, "Please manage your own currency, we will manage ours." When pressed, the Chinese will point out that they have never lectured the US of A on what to do with their currency even when they were buying Chinese manufactured goods at a small fraction of what it would cost them to manufacture and sell, so why should China listen to lectures now?</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">So now, the US of A is doing the equivalent of the grasshopper in W Somerset Maugham's version - marry a rich widow and escape the consequences of past profligacy, by alleging that China is a currency manipulator, and forcing China to value its currency upwards. If China gives in, then they have been hit twice - once by being forced to sell goods cheaply with an undervalued currency; and once again when it is time for them to reap the benefits of investing their savings in US of A's Treasury bonds. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Which version of "The Ant and the Grasshopper" will triumph - Aesop's, or Maugham's? The jury is out. I certainly hope that Maugham's cynical and dishonest grasshopper does not triumph. In this case, currently, it is worse: China's currency has risen, and yet they are being branded currency manipulators. </span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35904990.post-41883208588335791262011-10-10T20:04:00.000+05:302011-10-11T13:16:13.483+05:30Lessons in integrity from Bharat Ratna Sir M Visvesvaraya<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Please read on till the end! </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><b>Bharat Ratna Sir M. Visvesvaraya</b> (15 Sep 1860- 14 April, 1962) was one of India's finest sons. The breadth of his achievements mark him out as the <i><b>Leonardo Da Vinci </b></i></span><span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">of India.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">He was a Civil Engineer <i>par excellence</i>. He devised innovative techniques that were well ahead of his time. Among them,</span><br />
<ul>
<li><div align="JUSTIFY">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The Block System of Irrigation – to optimize, control and evenly distribute water supply to agricultural lands over many villages. The supply was rotated within “blocks” in each village to curtail misuse and water-logging. This system, devised in 1899, is still used in Deccan Canals.</span></span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div align="JUSTIFY">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The "collector well” in Sukkur in Sindh province (Pakistan). The area was hot and arid, and they had to pump water from River Sndhu to a hill nearby, filter it and supply water to the town through pipes.They did not have enough money for filters. Visveswaraya solved this ingeniously by digging wells in the river bed itself close to the river bank to obtain spring water through percolation. Thus filtering was achieved without installing filters. To increase supply of water, a tunnel was driven from the bottom of the well under the flowing river. This is now standard civil engineering textbook content under the Heading, “Collector Wells”.
</span></span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div align="JUSTIFY">
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">He designed and patented Automated Floodgates, which permit flood water to enter a reservoir without water level exceeding full reservoir level, thereby reducing risk of submerging surrounding land. The gates are automatic because they open and close at the rise and fall of water in the reservoir for flood control. <span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">He
designed water supply schemes for many towns in Bombay Presidency, Hyderabad and later as Chief Engineer of Mysore State. </span></span></span>
</span></span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">As Dewan of Mysore State, he established many rural industries and set up basic education for small shop owners in the fields of book-keeping and commerce. Agricultural schools were opened to help with modern agricultural practices that reduced farmers’ overdependence on rain and good luck. Many industrial workshops and training institutes were set up. Public libraries were established. The Kannada Sahitya Parishat was formed. Many books on science were
published in Kannada. The University College of Engineering (now known as University Visvesvaraya College of Engineering) and Maharani’s College for Women came into being. He established the Mysore University, as until then, all colleges in Mysore State were under Madras University. He established the Bhadravati Iron and Steel
Works, The Mysore Sandal Oil Factory, the Mysore Sandal Soap Factory, the Metals Factory, and the Chrome Tanning Factory. He started the Bank of Mysore (now State Bank of Mysore) and The Mysore Chamber of
Commerce. The Institution of Engineers (India) celebrates his birthday, 15th September every year, as <i><b>Engineers Day</b></i>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">He differed with Mahatma Gandhi whose view essentially was “Industrialize and Perish”, while Sir MV's motto was the opposite, “Industrialize or Perish”, but great men that they both were, both respected each others' views and capabilities.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Sir MV led a very simple life. He was known for his honesty and integrity. In 1912, Maharaja of Mysore appointed Visvesvaraya as his Dewan.</span><br />
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="color: red; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">
<b>Before accepting the position of Dewan of Mysore, he invited all his relatives for dinner. He told them very clearly that he would accept the prestigious office on the condition that none of them would approach him for favours.</b></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" justify"="" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;">
<b><span style="color: red;">When on tour on official business, Sir MV carried a set of candles bought
with his personal money, and used them for personal work like reading etc in the night after he was finished with official work.</span></b></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" justify"="" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;">
<b><span style="color: red;">Just think – this man lived a life of total personal integrity that we cannot even imagine today. It has taken another simple person like Anna Hazare to raise our collective anger against corruption. Across the political spectrum are ranged small minds who do not want to see corruption rooted out of this great country. They do not realise that because of their selfish interests, India is held back from fulfilling its rightful role in the world by the “hand-brake” called corruption. It is time to release the hand-brake and surge forward..</span></b></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Courtesy Rajesh Haldipur's Weblog</div>Rajesh Haldipurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05106467681956811449noreply@blogger.com1