Thursday, August 18, 2011

Putting the Bank of America situation in perspective

What would you think of the state of the Indian economy, if what I said of BofA and Citibank was said of State Bank of India and ICICI Bank in India by some economist of repute? 
The situation is that serious for the US and for many countries in Europe, where the nation's top banks have dug themselves into deep holes that not even the EU or their respective Governments can afford. All these economies have their underbellies exposed.
On both continents, banks are hiding behind accounting gobbledygook called Impairment and Fair Value Accounting. But the understanding is filtering through. Tonight (in India) brought news of a blood bath on bourses in the US and Europe. So tomorrow (19th August) will almost certainly see a bloodbath on Indian stock exchanges - as FII Fund Managers make a beeline to the nearest exit. Expect a fall of at least 400 points in the Sensex on 19th August, 2011 before short covering enables a partial recovery.
I believe that this is the beginning of the unravelling of several economies in Europe and of the US economy as well, with them slipping into R-2, needing QE-3 and possibly QE-4.
I shall write again tomorrow to report whether what I said about the bloodbath on Indian stock markets was accurate. I feel comfortable making these gloomy predictions because I currently am sitting on cash, having (fortunately) believed in my own predictions and taken my own advice!

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